The mobility and transportation sector in Spain faces the year 2025 with a predicted slowdown in growth. For the new year, forecasts point to a reduction in GDP growth compared to this year, around 2.3%, and one 2% inflation. Job creation will moderate and the external surplus will also reduce.
Air transport, represented by the Association of Airlines (ALA), stands out for having closed 2024 with record numbers: 287.6 million passengers transported until November, representing an increase of 9.4% compared to the previous year. This growth has generated a direct economic impact, with 305,000 jobs created and a contribution to GDP of 25.5 billion euros. According to ALA, each 10% increase in air connectivity translates into a 0.5% increase in GDP per capita and a 1.6% increase in employment. However, the outlook for 2025 is conditioned by geopolitical factors, such as tensions in the Middle East and the need to move towards sustainability with the mandatory use of 2% sustainable fuels in aviation. The association calls on administrations to implement incentives that allow scaling the production of these fuels and reducing the associated costs..
In the transport of goods by road, the International Road Transport Association (ASTIC) highlights a positive 2024, with a growth of 8% in the volume transported within the national territory, reaching 418 million tons. Despite this good performance, 2025 presents significant challenges. Growth of 1.7% is expected in the volume of transport in the EU, but factors such as tolls for CO2 emissions, the increase in operating costs and legal uncertainty linked to constant regulatory changes generate concern in the sector.
Its executive vice president, Ramón Valdivia, points out that road transport continues to be the “thermometer of the economy” and advocates measures that promote decarbonization without compromising the economic viability of companies. Highlights the need for Address driver shortages through training and better conditions.
Furthermore, ASTIC emphasizes that international transport, which is highly dependent on key markets such as France and Germany, faces additional challenges. In France, the growing public deficit and the reduction in industrial activity represent a direct threat to Spanish routes. On the other hand, Germany, which is already in recession, has also reduced its consumption and exports. These conditions could cause a stagnation in the volume of Spanish exportswhich are mostly done by road. Against this backdrop, the organization insists on the need to modernize national infrastructure to ensure competitiveness and promote more efficient and sustainable transportation.
The logistics sector’s employers’ association, UNO, emphasizes the importance of digital transformation and sustainability to consolidate the competitiveness of the Spanish logistics sector. Francisco Aranda, its president, insists that 2025 will be a key year to modernize infrastructure and promote a more efficient intermodal transport model. The approval of the Sustainable Mobility Law would be a decisive step to establish a regulatory framework that guides the sector towards common objectives in digitalization and decarbonization. Furthermore, the employers’ association highlights the urgency of investing in the railway, an infrastructure that in Spain represents less than 4% of the total volume of transported goods, far below other European countries. These investments are essential to turn the country into a leading logistics hub in Europe.
Another crucial aspect for UNO is the need for more flexible labor regulation that allows companies to quickly adapt to market changes. Aranda criticizes the current rigidities of the labor market, which prevent more efficient hiring and discourage job creation. In addition, it highlights the importance of addressing the high rates of absenteeism from work and modernizing collective agreements to avoid unfair competition within the sector. It also emphasizes that training and attracting young talent will be key to guaranteeing the necessary generational change in logistics and transportation. The strengthening of professional training and the development of specific programs for workers in the sector could improve the perception and working conditions of employees, dignifying the profession.
In public transport, the Spanish Confederation of Bus Transport (CONFEBUS) highlights a 7.84% increase in bus use during 2024, driven by bonus programs and discounts on tickets. By 2025, additional growth of 3% is projected, supported by initiatives that prioritize returning users and improve service quality. The organization emphasizes that this period can be considered the “decade of the bus”, thanks to the implementation of zero-emission fleets and synthetic fuels, which contribute to more sustainable transportation. In addition, the new concession maps are expected to improve coordination between public administrations, optimizing routes and guaranteeing connectivity in rural and metropolitan areas. Investments in sustainability and digitalization, combined with these reforms, will allow the bus to consolidate itself as a key option in national mobility.
The nautical sector, represented by the National Association of Nautical Companies (ANEN), presents a mixed outlook for 2025. Although in 2024 some regions, such as Madrid and Catalonia, recorded increases of 42% in revenue, It is anticipated that half of the companies in the sector will experience drops in income in the next year. This scenario especially affects the construction and sale of new boats, while subsectors such as recreation and sports foresee a slight expansion. ANEN points out that high bureaucracy and outdated legislation continue to be significant barriers to the growth of the sector. However, it also highlights opportunities in adapting to market demands and modernizing regulatory frameworks that allow for more efficient business development.
The future of the mobility and transport sector in Spain is full of challenges and opportunities. Decarbonization, digitalization and infrastructure improvement are emerging as the absolute priorities to consolidate a more sustainable, efficient and integrated transport system. Collaboration between administrations, companies and users will be crucial to overcome the challenges posed by the current context, marked by economic and environmental uncertainties.
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