MotoGP | Analysis: Could Marquez have fought for the win in Austria?

Memories of Brad Binder’s surprise win at the Red Bull Ring in 2021, aboard a KTM and on home soil, are still fresh in the minds of some MotoGP fans. It’s not often you see a rider running on dry tyres in a flag-to-flag race, in pouring rain, and still come away with the win.

The 2019 edition of the Austrian GP will also be remembered for the thrilling duel between Marc Marquez and Andrea Dovizioso that was decided on the last corner of the last lap, when the Ducati rider launched himself up the inside of the Spaniard to be the first to see the checkered flag.

Considering that Spielberg has offered these two iconic races relatively recently, it’s a shame that the last two editions of the Central European event have been rather boring, especially due to the lack of a fight at the top.

The last two races in Austria have been full of overtaking moves, as evidenced by the numerous battles seen at the back of the grid. But just like in 2023, when Pecco Bagnaia took the lead after passing Binder at the start, last Sunday’s battle for victory was essentially over at the end of the second lap. The Turin rider took the lead from poleman Jorge Martin at the braking point of Turn 1 and never lost it.

Martin stayed in the Ducati rider’s slipstream for the first 14 laps, but halfway through the race the Prima Pramac Racing rider began to lose ground due to the heavy degradation of his front tyre. In the end, Bagnaia won by 3.2 seconds, making for a rather disappointing race on a track that has seen great battles in the past.

Another reason why the Austrian GP was not up to par was Marquez’s disastrous start from third on the grid, caused by a mistake with the front lowering device, which occurred after he had been destabilized by a problem with his Desmosedici GP half an hour before the race. This left him at the mercy of a contact with Franco Morbidelli at Turn 1, causing him to fall to 13th place.

Marquez fought back with some brilliant overtaking moves that, ironically, added action to an otherwise quiet race. But his pace left many wondering what might have happened had he not struggled so much at the start.

Could the eight-time world champion do anything about the three Ducati GP24s on the podium? If we look at the race pace, we can find some answers to this question.

For most of the race, the Gresini Racing rider managed to lap times of 1’30” and 1’29”, even in traffic. After a bad start, it took him just four laps to get back into the top ten. Marquez continued to work his way through the opposition and by the tenth lap of the race he was already sixth. Passing Marco Bezzecchi was the most difficult task, but once he had done so, it didn’t take him long to pass Binder and move up to fourth.

Marquez was faster than the leader when in clear air, although by this time Bagnaia had little to gain from pushing

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

It took him 18 laps to gain those 10 positions, but he managed to ride in clean air. It was then that he began to show his true speed, having managed to conserve his Michelin tyres well during his comeback.

Between laps 20 and 25, Marquez was the fastest rider, lapping up to three tenths faster than Bagnaia, who did not need to push at the front of the race, as he already had a sufficient gap to Martin. While the Piedmontese was lapping in 1’31”, Marquez dropped to 1’30”. In this way he reduced the gap to third-placed Enea Bastianini, from 8″7 to 6″.

Eventually, Marquez realised that Bastianini was too far away and opted to ease off in the final stages of the race, completing the final lap in 1’32″075. However, the conclusion is easy to draw: Marquez would have clearly been in contention for the podium had things not gone badly for him at the start.

Despite the calmness in the final stages, the #93’s gap to Bagnaia remained stable between laps 18 and 28. In the same period, he closed the gap to second-placed Martin by 1.5 seconds and the gap to Bastianini by two seconds. Given the defending champion’s advantage, it is unlikely that Marquez could have managed to take the win at the Red Bull Ring. However, third place was achievable and there was even a chance he could challenge Martin for second.

A battle between the Catalan and the Spaniard, especially after the latter slowed down, would have transformed a rather calm race into an exciting one. Martin would not have easily given up the position to his compatriot, knowing that a third place would have left him even further behind Bagnaia in the general classification. Marquez, for his part, would not have been afraid to try to overtake the number 89.

After losing the lead to Bagnaia, Martin had a lonely ride to second but a battle with Marquez would have injected life into the race

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

After all, the rider from Cervera was ready to put in one of his best performances of the year, having felt his GP23 better since the beginning of the weekend in Spielberg. In the end, the fight for second place failed. “I don’t dare say if I could have stayed with Bagnaia and Martin,” said Marquez. “At the end of the race I was faster, yes, but at the beginning I was slower. Maybe they used more tires at the beginning of the race than at the end. I could have gotten on the podium, but it wasn’t possible.”

But Marquez’s absence wasn’t the only reason the Austrian GP didn’t live up to expectations. Other factors also played a role. First, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for MotoGP riders to follow each other on the track, a direct consequence of the growing reliance on aerodynamics and electronic aids.

Then there’s the matter of Ducati’s dominance. The Borgo Panigale manufacturer’s in-depth knowledge of the new Michelin rear tyre – thanks to its numerical advantage – is increasingly distancing the GP24s from their rivals. Add to that the fact that the Red Bull Ring favours the Desmosedici GPs, and it’s no surprise that seven of the top ten positions have been occupied by riders from the Italian firm. But Ducati has long dominated MotoGP, and this 2024 has seen interesting races. What was different in Spielberg?

Tyre pressure management proved to be a bigger issue than at other circuits. Following a rider too closely for several laps caused pressures to rise significantly, negatively impacting the performance of the bike behind.

Managing tire pressure was imperative at the Red Bull Ring and added to difficulties in following with the numerous aerodynamic appendages

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images

It is therefore not surprising that both Bagnaia and Martin wanted to take the lead in both races of the weekend. The first passes of the number 1 in both the Sprint and the long race proved decisive for both victories. It is significant that Martin said that “90% of the victory is done” if you lead the race after the first three or four laps.

Bastianini was also unusually slow in the closing laps of the race. Known for his impressive explosiveness in the final laps, the Beast’s comeback from seventh to third on the opening lap must have worried the two leading men. But the number 23 was never able to catch them, as he continued to lose ground throughout the 28 laps.

While it is in the best interests of MotoGP teams to work together and improve the quality of racing, everyone is chasing glory. With lap records broken at nearly every circuit on the calendar this year, it is clear where the focus is at the moment. Aprilia Trackhouse’s Miguel Oliveira summed it up when asked about the poor show in Austria: “It’s because we are only looking for pure performance.”

“Pure performance, now with aerodynamics, allows us to go faster, to reach higher speeds. But you also have to brake more, and with the brakes you can only go so far. So you have to take into account the brakes, the temperature and the pressure of the front tyres.”

“We have a hard compound that we cannot use, because it is too hard and we do not have enough grip. For this reason, we used the softest tyre, which is normally the normal hard compound for most circuits, which is too soft. But it is the best compromise. In the end it is more difficult to overtake. It is not like five or six years ago, with the old MotoGP bikes,” he added.

Even without his poor start, there are no guarantees that Marquez could have finished the lead battle

Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images