The likely overturning of the 1973 decision that authorized abortion in the United States under certain circumstances, indicated in the draft of a Supreme Court majority decision released by the press this week and that would return to American states the freedom to legislate on the subject, transformed the interruption pregnancy in the most important issue of the midterm elections in the country, scheduled for November.
In this election, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate will be up for grabs. In addition, there will be gubernatorial elections in 39 states and territories, in addition to other state and local contests.
Midterm elections are often difficult for the current president, and Joe Biden faced a bad outlook due to high inflation rates: in March, the index reached 8.5%, the highest for a 12-month period since December 1981.
This Wednesday (4), the Federal Reserve (Fed), the central bank of the United States, carried out the second consecutive rate hike, this time with an increase of 0.5 percentage point, the largest since 2000.
The Republican opposition had hoped that Americans’ dissatisfaction with rising prices would help them win a majority both in the Senate, where the party and Democrats share the house, but there is a tie-breaking vote by Vice President Kamala Harris, and in the House. of Representatives, where Democrats have 221 seats and Republicans 209.
There is no doubt that the definition of federal jurisprudence regarding abortion, which must be officially announced by the Supreme Court before the November elections, will have great weight in the vote – the question is which side will benefit the most.
Political analyst Chris Ellis, co-director of the Bucknell Institute for Public Policy, pointed out to Fox56, a Fox network affiliate in northeastern Pennsylvania, that the overturning of the Roe v. Wade wouldn’t change the votes of many voters, “because people who think about abortion when they’re trying to figure out how to vote are already well-decided, but it can help bridge the gap in enthusiasm.” [entre republicanos e democratas]”.
“What we’ve seen for a long time is that people on the pro-life side are consistently more engaged, more motivated, more likely to vote based on this issue than people on the other side,” he pointed out.
On Tuesday, Biden urged Americans to vote for pro-abortion candidates in the midterm elections. “If the Supreme Court overturns Roe v. Wade, elected legislators at all levels will be responsible for protecting women’s right to decide,” the president said.
Representative Susan Wild, a Democrat from Pennsylvania, told the New York Times that she believes the abortion issue will contribute to a greater turnout of Biden supporters.
“People were concerned about voter apathy for the midterm elections and non-turnout to vote – well, the Supreme Court just gave us a reason for people to vote,” he argued.
However, the eventual overthrow of Roe vs. Wade can also increase the opposing side’s mobilization.
“Anyone who supports abortion to the end and wants taxpayers to pay for it is not a viable candidate. And I think Democrats are going to start seeing that at the polls,” argued Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of anti-abortion activist group Susan B. Anthony List, in an interview with MSNBC on Tuesday.
Republican strategist Glen Bolger also believes the Supreme Court ruling could spur an anti-abortion vote.
“The consensus now is that [a derrubada de Roe vs. Wade] helps Democrats because it will encourage participation [de eleitores favoráveis ao aborto]but it can certainly also spur the turnout of grassroots Republicans,” he said, in an interview with the New York Times.
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