Russia officially wants to improve its relations with Belarus. Both countries have been working together for a long time. It is becoming increasingly clear who has the power.
Moscow – Russia says it plans to strengthen ties with Belarus. This will happen within the framework of the Russian-Belarusian Union project. What sounds harmless could ultimately amount to a de facto takeover of power.
At a meeting of the Union State Council of Ministers in Moscow On November 29th, the heads of government adopted a new “package of integration measures” for the next three-year period (2024-2026). This is reported by the Russian state news agency TASS. It is expected that “this package will be approved by the Supreme State Council of the Union State at the beginning of next year,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He further explained that the foreign ministries of Russia and Belarus have the task of “effectively supporting diplomatically” the work to deepen the integration of the Union.
Political, economic and military integration – real cooperation?
The Russian-Belarusian Union is an intergovernmental treaty signed in 1999 between Russia and Belarus (formerly Belarus). The aim was to create close political, economic and military integration between the two countries. Despite the signing of the contract, many of the planned integration steps were not fully implemented. The Union has not reached the same depth as, for example, the European Union. Nevertheless, there are close political, economic and cultural ties between Russia and Belarus.
However, there were always difficulties. According to the website Country analyses At the time, the agreement was primarily an attempt to downplay the significance of the collapse of the USSR. From the year 2000 onwards, relations became increasingly complicated. Vladimir Putin advocated Belarus's accession to the Russian Federation and economic pragmatism. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, on the other hand, insisted on equal conditions for economic entities. In reality, this meant providing oil and gas at preferential prices. Disputes over oil and gas prices flare up regularly.
Putin wanted supranational structures – Belarus rejected this
Only with the start of the Russian war in Donbass and the annexation of Crimea in 2014, as well as the sanctions against Russia (2014-2015) and the dialogue with the EU started by Lukashenko in 2015, did Belarus take on a new meaning for Russia. Back then, Moscow wanted to avoid control over Minsk slipping away like it did over Ukraine. The most recent development began with the statement by Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev in December 2018. From this point on, Russia wanted to create supranational structures in accordance with the 1999 agreement, i.e. a parliament, committees and a common central bank.
However, the Belarusian side did not agree to the creation of unified administrative bodies – the “program of activities of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation to implement the provisions of the founding treaty of the Union State” had failed. Instead, after some back and forth, a series of roadmaps were agreed upon. The decree, signed on November 4, 2021, contained the following points:
- Pursuing a uniform macroeconomic structural policy and creating a common financial market.
- Creating a common economic area and ensuring equal conditions for entrepreneurial activity.
- Harmonization of tax and customs legislation. Implementation of a uniform tax policy as well as a uniform trade, customs and tariff policy with regard to third countries, international organizations and associations.
- Preparation and implementation of a budget of the Union State.
- Implementation of a coordinated policy in the areas of labor protection, social security of the population and pension provision.
- Unification of civil legislation and establishment of the basis for the creation of property of the Union State.
- Ensuring that the provisions of the Treaty on the Establishment of a Union State of December 8, 1999 and strengthening Russian-Belarusian cooperation are implemented.
Threat to Belarusian sovereignty – “clear signal, also for other former Soviet republics”
Loud Country analyses A possible threat to Belarus' sovereignty comes primarily from the convergence of macroeconomic policies, the Union program for the harmonization of tax and customs legislation and the development of common markets for oil and oil products. Since 2022, accelerated implementation of some controversial points has been observed. It can be assumed that the points that pose the greatest threat to Belarusian sovereignty will soon be implemented under considerable pressure, and also in exchange for preferential prices for oil and gas.
In February, a document entitled “Strategic Goals of the Russian Federation in Belarus” from 2021 caused a stir. According to this paper, Russia wants to completely annex the neighboring country by 2030. The goal is therefore a “union state” in which Moscow has the say. At the time, employees of Western secret services assessed the secret paper as part of Vladimir Putin's plan to create a new Great Russian Empire. Belarusian security expert Anton Bendarjevskiy, who lives in Hungary, told the SZ, this is “a clear signal, also for other former Soviet republics”. (tpn)
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