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Russia began its major offensive on Kharkiv with a surprise attack around two weeks ago. This may now have failed. What will happen next in the oblast?
Kiev/Moscow – The City of Kharkiv and the surrounding oblast are one of the most hotly contested fronts in the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for more than two years. Most recently, it was the focus of a major Russian offensive, which initially started quite promisingly for Vladimir Putin’s troops with a surprise attack.
On Saturday, experts from the independent US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has described the major Russian offensive on the Kharkiv region as a “failure”. The ISW believes that the “premature start of the Russian offensive” has nullified the success in the south of the Kharkiv region.
According to ISW, Russia’s major offensive in Kharkiv Oblast has recently slowed down
In its report assessing the major Russian offensive on Kharkiv, the ISW found that the troops had only begun their offensive in the northern Kharkiv region with “limited forces”. Possibly in order not to immediately provoke the Ukrainian military with an excessive presence of their forces. However, the fact that they have still not been able to move significant reserves there, more than two weeks after the start of the offensive, inevitably led to a slowdown in the Russian advances in the region, the ISW military experts explained. A mistake that may be difficult for Putin’s troops to correct.
“The decreasing tempo likely provides tactical opportunities for Ukrainian forces to counterattack, although they are not yet conducting a limited counteroffensive aimed at completely displacing Russian forces from the northern Kharkiv region,” the ISW report said.
At the beginning of its Kharkiv offensive, the Russian military’s Northern Forces Grouping (NGF) in the north of the Kharkiv region is said to have had around 35,000 soldiers. According to Ukrainian sources reported by ISW, however, this is a significantly lower troop strength than Russia had originally intended: Vladimir Putin had actually wanted to deploy 50,000 to 70,000 soldiers in the north of Kharkiv.
Situation in Kharkiv Oblast – Major offensive failed as a result of Russia’s first surprise attack
First, at the start of their Kharkiv offensive on May 10, the Russian NGF forces managed to surprise the Ukrainian military stationed in the north of the Kharkiv region, making tactically significant gains in areas that, according to Ukrainian statements, were less well defended. As a result, the Ukrainian State Bureau of Investigation (SBI) announced that it had launched an investigation into “inadequate preparation of the Ukrainian defense in this area and the abandonment of Ukrainian positions on the Lypky and Volchansk fronts.” A total of 28 officers now face trial for alleged military failure.
During the next two weeks of warfare on the northern Kharkiv front, both Russian and Ukrainian sources repeatedly reported that the Ukrainian armed forces were increasingly regaining the initiative in the northern Kharkiv region, while describing Russian operations in the area as defensive.
However, they assumed that Russian forces might try to bring the NGF closer to its planned final strength before Putin intensifies new offensive operations in the area. Finally, on Friday, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military reported that the Ukrainian armed forces were pushing back Russian forces from Ukrainian defenses in the north of Kharkiv Oblast.
Selenskyj: Russian losses in Kharkiv Oblast eight times higher than those of Ukraine
Now Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj has also spoken out about losses on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides in the Kharkiv region. In an interview with the Ukrainian Kyiv Independent Zelensky said Russia’s losses since the major offensive in Kharkiv Oblast were eight times higher than those of the Ukrainian military.
In another Video message from the Ukrainian President now to leading politicians of global allies. Day and night, Kharkiv is under fire from S-300 missiles, which are actually used for missile defense, explained Zelensky. He also pointed out that Russian troops are currently gathering in a new group near the border, around 90 kilometers northwest of Kharkiv.
Is Putin planning a new offensive in the Kharkiv region? Selenskyj warns in video message
“Russia is the only source of aggression and is constantly trying to expand the war. Right now, these days, we are defending ourselves 60 kilometers northeast of this place against another attempted Russian attack,” Zelenskyj explained. “Does Russia want a dialogue?” Zelenskyj asks towards the end of his video message. “During the war negotiations, Ukraine witnessed Russia’s lies like no other country in the world. Lies that were primarily Russian cover-ups in preparation for this war,” the Ukrainian president continued. He also called on global allies, explicitly including the USA and China, to participate in the planned Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland in June. (fh)
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