Istat, negative record for births: slight recovery at the end of 2021
The Istat report “Demographic dynamics in 2021” reveals that the births of the resident population in Italy in 2021 were just 399,431, down by 1.3% compared to 2020 and almost 31% compared to 2008, the most recent relative maximum year of births. The decline in total births, which had already been observed in 2020 (-3.6% compared to 2019) is to be attributed due only in part to the effects of the pandemic. In fact, the first effects on births referable to conception occurred during the first lockdown can be observed starting from the last two months of the year, especially in December 2020 (-10.7%).
The picture of births in 2021 allows us to analyze the details of the consequences of the epidemic. According to Istat, the decline in births continues in the first two months of 2021, with a maximum contraction recorded in January at the national level (-13.4). A deficit, that of those born in January 2021 is among the largest ever recorded and leaves little doubt about the role played by the epidemic. It is a symptom of the postponement of parenting plans, which is particularly pronounced among younger women.
A slight trend reversal is observed in March 2021 (+ 4.7%), when the increase in births can be explained by the illusory impression of overcoming the emergency perceived in May 2020. The increase is more sustained in the South (+ 11.1%), while the North-west is the only division that continues to show a negative variation, albeit much more contained than in previous months (-0.4%).
The trend, still weakly positive in April (+ 1.3% compared to the same month of the previous year), returns negative especially in June and July (-5.7% and -5.5% respectively), in correspondence with the conception occurred during the second epidemic wave. The trend begins to rise in August, until it reverses its sign in the months of November and December when there are significant increases in births compared to the same months of 2020 (respectively + 6.8% and + 13.5%).
Istat data, marriages increase: 179 thousand in 2021
On the other hand, marriages have increased: in 2021 about 179 thousand were celebrated, about double the previous year. However, compared to 2019, marriages are in fact 2.7% lower. Civil marriages show a return to the levels of 2019 (+ 0.7% in 2021 compared to 2019), which seem to have been less penalized by the limitations imposed to contain the pandemic.
In fact, the contagion containment measures – introduced with the advent of the second wave – continued to have direct effects on wedding celebrations, producing a decrease of 34% compared to the same period of 2019 (-68.9% for religious weddings, -16.1% civilians). The increase in marriages is observed during the summer of 2021, with a peak in July (+ 232.1% on 2020; + 41.8% on 2019) and August (+ 80.2% on 2020; + 22.2% on 2019).
There relationship between births and marriages is interesting for a country like Italy, where more than two thirds of the births are within the marriage. The repercussions on the recovery of births starting from spring 2022.
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