Is the next recession called climate change? | The truth

“Our analysis shows that climate change will cause massive economic damage in the next 25 years in almost all countries in the world,” says Leonie Wenz, author of the research and member of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). The research, published this Wednesday in the journal Nature, reveals that the global damages caused by climate change amount to 38 billion dollars, about 35 billion euros at current exchange rates. Although the range of losses is broader and ranges from 18 billion euros to 55.5 billion euros until 2050. “And it will affect most regions of the world,” the researchers point out.

However, the bill rises as the years progress and the end of the 21st century is reached. Economic losses will be 60% greater by 2100 and will especially affect the global south. “Countries least responsible for climate change are expected to suffer the greatest loss,” explains Wenz. A reality that is already visible and is the subject of debate in every meeting that has the impact of climate change as its center of debate.

Pakistan is responsible for less than 1% of planet-warming gases, European Union data shows, but it is the eighth most vulnerable nation to the climate crisis and is paying a high price, not just in lives but also in schools, houses and bridges destroyed. In 2022, historic floods left half the country submerged under water at a cost of 10 billion euros, according to several non-governmental organizations, and representing 2.6% of its total gross domestic product.

“The people of Pakistan are paying the price with their lives, their livelihoods, for the industrialization of rich countries that has resulted in this climate change,” the Pakistani executive denounced in 2022. This example is not the only one, the Horn of Africa also has million-dollar losses due to drought and many island states in the Pacific have lost hectares of crops due to rising seas. Projections indicate that those least responsible for climate change will suffer a loss of income 60% greater than that of the highest-income countries and 40% greater than that of the countries with the highest emissions. Furthermore, they are also the ones with the fewest resources to adapt to its impacts.

To this end, at the last climate summit held in Dubai (United Arab Emirates), all countries represented in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) unanimously agreed to launch a Loss and Damage Fund to the countries most affected by the impacts of global warming. However, what has been collected so far barely reaches 0.2% of the total. “These short-term damages are the result of our past emissions,” warns Wenz. “The temperature of the planet can only be stabilized if we stop burning oil, gas and coal,” says Anders Levermann, head of the Complexity Sciences Research Department at the Potsdam Institute and co-author of the study.