Military maneuvers continue on the Taiwan Strait
The Asian crisis that began in Taiwan is far from over. And not only because, as widely expected, the Chinese military maneuvers around the island certainly do not end with the military exercises of recent days. But also because the impact of the tensions on the Strait is also being felt at the regional level, with a number of countries preparing to react to Beijing’s show of strength.
Meanwhile, also on Friday, Taiwan reported that 21 Chinese warplanes and 6 warships were spotted around the island: 11 of the planes flew east of airline and sea lines believed to limit areas of influence in the Taiwan Strait. According to the authorities, aircraft and ships of the Chinese army were tracked with electronic tracking tools, patrol aircraft, ships and missile systems. A “new normal” in which Chinese vehicles progressively approach the Taiwanese coasts and after regularly launching their forays into the air defense identification space they will do the same beyond the midline (both not recognized by Beijing which claims all the waters of the Tight like Chinese).
The effects of the tension on Japan and India
But also pay attention to what is happening around Taiwan. Starting with Japan, which after some of the ballistic missiles launched by China ended up in the waters of its Special Economic Zone (even these not recognized by the Beijing government which has opened a dispute over the Senkaku / Diaoyu islands), he is increasingly aware that in the event of a conflict over Taiwan he risks being personally involved. By the way, the Japanese press claims that Xi Jinping would have personally decided the launch of missiles in the Tokyo SEZ to give a clear signal: “Do not intervene in the Taiwan affair”.
If Japan seems destined to have a primarily reactive role, there are those who imagine a more active role also than India. P.echino and New Delhi have yet to fully ease tense relations after clashes along the disputed border in spring 2020. In recent days, the Indian government has not reiterated the principle of one China, has carefully followed developments on the Strait and has indeed confirmed a joint exercise with US troops less than 100 kilometers away from the disputed border scheduled for October. .
The joint exercise with the US is annual and is nothing new, but the test site does. It is difficult not to think that this is a signal to Beijing. Although India has always shown that it does not intend to align itself with the West and the US, starting with the fluid relations maintained with Russia even after the invasion of Ukraine, tensions with Beijing remain high and a more muscular China could push India to adopt countermeasures also because the two areas of influence of the Asian giants overlap on the Himalayan quadrant and in the Indian Ocean.
In recent days India has also deployed a military helicopter to transport the Dalai Lama from Leh to a remote village, in a context of continuous conflict with China along the effective Line of Control between the two neighboring nations in eastern Ladakh. The latest move by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government seems to send a subtle but decisive message to Beijing, which considers Tibet a central issue. According to the Indian press, among other things, the Dalai Lama recently told Leh that a change in the situation in China would be “imminent” and that the Tibetans in exile must “remain strong”.
Beijing responds by “enlisting” the Nepal with infrastructure projects on the border seen as a threat on the Indian side. The reverberation of ballistic missiles could reach beyond the Taiwan Strait.
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