After the publication of the first part of the interview with the designer Carlo Bonzanigo, we propose a second episode with many interesting considerations on issues that are crucial for the development of the automotive sector today. On the one hand there are electrification and autonomous driving, two sides of the technological coin that the car manufacturers are trying to put around their necks. On the other the theme of sharing and mobility for young people, which must be analyzed carefully as the prices of most of the machines are no longer suitable for novice drivers.
The first part of the interview can be read here: ep.1: Between past and future
Electrification, Automation, Sharing are the words that are increasingly approaching the new forms of mobility. What can you tell us about it?
“I think it is important to separate the 3 main trends that are transforming mobility in a disruptive way: electrification, automation and sharing of the means of mobility. Because they have very different timelines, paths and relevance. Electrification, we know, it is already among us with reliable and sophisticated products, and it will improve more and more in the coming years. Rather, the big problems to be solved are others: infrastructural, energy, political, economic and even social, given the current costs of electric vehicles. Automation it is making its way but the obstacles to overcome are still many, and considerable. The world’s infrastructures are not ready to simultaneously accommodate manually driven vehicles and self-driving vehicles from level 4 upwards. There are still too many variables to be able to safely manage such a mixture. And manually driven cars won’t disappear overnight. We will therefore face a long transition phase in which these two types of mobility will have to coexist“.
“But there is a fundamental aspect that is talked about too little: the psychological one, linked to completely entrusting ourselves to an exogenous driving system. Most of us, both in Europe and in the United States, are not ready for this. It can be suitable for moving from one airport terminal to another, at very low speed and in a protected ecosystem. Or for the transport of neighborhood goods (always on dedicated lanes). But we are hardly ready to entrust our lives to a completely autonomous piloting system (level 5) for a long journey, at high speed (highway) and in an ecosystem open to unknowns and unexpected events that could endanger our life and that of our loved ones. Personally I believe that autonomous vehicles will prove their validity first as collective means of transport and in city areas (always with routes dedicated to them) before being able to establish themselves widely as individual long-range means of transport. But since the fears of mankind are daughters of their time (today most of us fly without too many fears, unlike what happened at the beginning of the last century) it will be necessary to be patient and even these hesitations will disappear in the coming decades. But it will take time, at least another generation. Even slower to roll out will be fully autonomous human transport by air, which is being talked about a lot these days. Who among us today is ready to sit in a robotic drone and be transported in flight for 45 minutes? It is therefore good that technological developments go forward and produce increasingly reliable technical solutions, but it may be that the psychological and anthropological evolutions of the world population follow other timelines.“.
“As for the sharing, today mainly identified with the rental of vehicles belonging to third-party companies, it will enjoy exponential growth when the means of mobility are completely autonomous. The notion of ‘sharing’ will be understood not as a communion of spaces with other users but, in a broader sense, such as the use of autonomous means of mobility used up to ten minutes before by someone else. ‘Hybrid’ usage models will arise. In large cities, most of the means will belong to companies or municipalities, while private ones will decrease significantly. There will certainly still be vehicles that will follow predefined routes (a bit like today’s public transport), but the lion’s share will be made by the means programmed according to the requests made by users through all sorts of devices. A capillary and customizable transport system where each customer will be able to use the vehicle that best suits his needs in a short time. A bit like today’s Uber or Didi, but without a driver. However, it should be highlighted how the sensitivity of users regarding the aspects discussed above is different in the various geographical areas of the planet: in Europe the opinion of people on abandoning the concept of ownership is different from that of Asian users. A sensitivity that obviously also varies enormously between areas with high population density and rural ones. Another very important aspect in our latitudes and in the United States is that of ‘independence‘, an aspect that is therefore reflected in the possession of one’s own vehicle. A situation therefore in continuous evolution, depending – as it should be – of the economic, social and infrastructural developments of the various areas of the planet“.
If the future can have this form, it will be lived by those we today call young people. In the automotive world, are the talks about the age target still valid? At one time there were very interesting price ranges for new drivers, even for new cars. While today the scenario seems very different, with young people who seem to be ‘forgotten’ by their homes.
“The cars of segment A, the most affordable for a young person, they will tend to become rarefied, and will probably be replaced – in urban traffic – by car sharing. They are in fact less and less economically rewarding for a manufacturer, and as proof of this in the last 24 months some manufacturers have announced the stop to the production of models in this segment. Also applies to the electric: today’s prices are not at all suitable for young people, and this is a problem that car manufacturers are aware of. But the technology in question is still too expensive. On the other hand, it has always been known that in the world of the automobile the great technological innovations have a path top-bottom; that is, they are introduced (and financed) on ‘high-end’ models to then reach economic democratization on the more mass market ones. But we are getting there, since more and more brands within the large groups are becoming all electric, and this will make it possible to lower prices and democratize this technology. And also in this case, it is useful to note that there are marked differences depending on the geographical area considered. In China, for example, national manufacturers are very attentive to the so-called ‘generation Z’, which constitutes 16% of the national population.“.
(cover image: Carlo Bonzanigo)
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