A poll in Iowa that has unexpectedly put Kamala Harris ahead of Donald Trump in what was previously expected to be a safe state for Republicans has sent shock waves through US poll watchers. Selzer’s poll, conducted for the Des Moines Register newspaper, showed Harris ahead of her Republican rival by three points.
Selzer is the highest-rated pollster by guru Nate Silver, one of the most followed polling experts in the United States. “In the world where Harris wins Iowa, she is likely also sweeping other parts of the Midwest, particularly Michigan and Wisconsin, in which case she is already almost certain to win the electoral college,” Silver said on his website. .
Iowa, in the Midwest, is not one of seven battleground states in the 2024 election, which are the metal belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and the sunbelt states of Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona.
Although pundits and pollsters are cautious about putting too much stock in any one poll, Selzer is a widely respected polling organization with a good track record in Iowa. If Harris were simply competitive in Iowa – which Trump won by so much in 2016 as in 2020 – could radically reshape the race.
Selzer’s poll puts Harris ahead of Trump, 47% to 44% among likely voters. A September poll showed Trump with a four-point lead over Harris and a June poll showed him with an 18-point lead over then-candidate Joe Biden.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw it coming,” pollster J Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., told The Register. “He has clearly jumped into a leadership position.”
The poll shows that women are driving the late shift toward Harris in the state. If true and further confirmed, it would also be significant as Harris’ campaign has focused on appealing to women amid a wide gender gap with Republican-leaning male voters. Harris and her campaign have focused on the overturning of the federal right to abortion by the conservative-dominated U.S. Supreme Court.
The reaction of experts and pollsters has been mostly one of shock and surprise, although it has also been pointed out that a rival polling group continued to keep Trump in the lead in Iowa.
“It is incredibly brave to publish this survey. It won’t put Harris ahead in our forecasts because another poll was also released today in Iowa that was good for Trump. But I wouldn’t want to play poker against Ann Selzer,” Silver said.
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