French President Emmanuel Macron has not confirmed his desire to continue but is campaigning full-headed. The challenger has been Valérie Pécresse, who is composed of “two-thirds Merkel and one-third Thatcher”.
French political sentiment has begun to really electrify four months after the presidential election.
President Emmanuel Macronin the sequel isn’t a by-pass, although he’s the clear number one in opinion polls at first. The April election is likely to be resolved only in the second round, from which one can tame a tight one.
The hams of the center-liberal Macron have suffered a moderate right Valérie Pécresse, who was elected Presidential candidate for the Republican Party in early December.
If Pécresse gets into the second round, he would have the chances of putting Macro in a tight spot or even winning. In polls about the first round, Pécresse has soared in recent weeks.
Macron has not yet even signed up for the next season, but he still has a campaign switch on.
In December, Macron has, among other things, gone on a provincial trip to the Vichy region and sought a feel la France profondeen that is, “deep into France” by chatting with citizens in markets and markets.
Macron has also used the position of television publicity so lightly that opponents accuse him of abusing the position.
On Wednesday Macron’s one-and-a-half-hour interview was shown on prime time on Channel 1 in France. The name of the program was generously French, “Where is France going?”.
Macron has ruled since 2017. At the beginning of his tenure, he was accused of arrogance, even of the idols of the supreme god Jupiter.
Wednesday’s interview was a continuation of the humility exercises. Macron admitted to making mistakes.
The president still did not agree to confirm his desire to continue, but said he would focus on office.
“Some are already campaigning but your servant isn’t,” Macron told the news channel LCI by. Admittedly, he hinted that not everything could be completed in five years.
Valérie Pécressen in addition, two right-wing politicians had already registered as Macron’s challenger: the endurance candidate Marine Le Pen as well as a newcomer who formalized his candidacy in November Éric Zemmour.
At least at this point in the campaign, the French left is completely in the canvas. The state of rebates of the Socialists in particular is confusing, as the party has produced two presidents in recent French history, François Mitterrandin (in office from 1981 to 1995) and François Hollanden (2012–2017).
Academy researcher specializing in European politics Timo Miettinen highlights three points to follow from the French election.
“The first is the far-right struggle between Le Pen and Zemmour,” Miettinen says. “Will Zemmour be able to attract new voters or will the far right’s votes be split between the two candidates?”
Le Pen is a long-standing politician and a populist clan. His father, now 93 years old Jean-Marie Le Pen founded the Anti-Alien National Front in 1972, and he also ran for president many times.
Under the leadership of Marine Le Pen, the National Front has moderated to some extent. The party is currently called Rassemblement national, which is used to refer to the National Alliance.
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“Some are already campaigning but your servants are not.”
Zemmour is a degree more outspoken right-wing populist than Le Pen. Zemmour has formed a party called Reconquête! i.e. Recapture! as their campaign machine.
The target of the recapture is France, which Zemmour wants to “reclaim”.
It may be that while competing for the same votes, two right-wing populists are scrapping each other’s presidential dreams.
“Would it be possible that the far right would not make it to the second round and Macron would be challenged from the traditional party?” Timo Miettinen apricots.
Thoughtful on the spot list, number two is the rise of Valérie Pécressen.
The Pécresse party, the Republicans, continues Gaulism, or general Charles de Gaullen heritage. The Republicans have changed their name many times, but it could be equated with center-right forces such as the German Christian Democrats or the Coalition of Finland.
Pécress has a long career in politics. He was president Jacques Chiracin in the assistant card at the turn of the 21st century and as president of the university Nicolas Sarkozyn term of office from 2007 onwards.
Today, Pécresse is the regional director of the Île-de-France region. If she won the presidential election, a woman would become the ruler of the Élysée Palace for the first time. In the past, the closest has been the Socialist Ségolène Royal, which won 47 percent of the vote in the second round in 2007 and lost to Sarkozy.
Valérie Pécresse has compared herself to two well-known female leaders, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the British Prime Minister of recent years To Margaret Thatcher. Pécresse has described its composition as “two-thirds Merkel and one-third Thatcher”.
Of particular interest to the French electoral system is that, according to current polls, Valérie Pécresse would be on par with Macron in the second round and could even win.
With right-wing populists, both Marine Le Pen and Éric Zemmour, the road would presumably be easier to erect.
But Timo Miettinen’s third remark on the French election is related to the polls.
“There are many months before the election,” says Miettinen. “It is not possible to deduce too much from the polls. Even big fluctuations can happen, as the German elections showed. ”
In Germany, the Social Democrat Olaf Scholz drew its party to an amazing final rise in crucial weeks under last September’s election. He is now the Chancellor.
About the Finn from the point of view, the French election has, in a way, a higher stake than the German election.
“If you compare it to the German elections, then the French elections are more existential,” Miettinen explains.
With a population of around 67 million, France is a European power, economically, politically and militarily. In this context, the existential Miettinen means that the result of the French election could shake the very essence of the European Union if an anti-EU right-wing population is elected president. France is a presidential system.
“In Germany, all parties with more than 15 percent support are campaigning with the idea of continuity,” Miettinen says.
“But if a figure is chosen from the extreme right in France, its significance for the development of the EU as a whole would be remarkably dramatic. There may be a real change of political line in France. “
Past election results do not predict a political earthquake in France. In 2017, Macron rocked Le Pen in the second round of elections with a 66-34 percent.
In France in addition to Macron himself, Pécresse represents continuity. Both are supporters of the EU, although Pécresse may seek to stand out with traditional right-wing themes: security and order.
Pécresse recently wrote about his views on Europe in Le Monde. In his writing he called for, among other things, a “proud Europe” that must not be a “soft lower abdomen of globalization”. He called for an end to EU enlargements and for the rapid recruitment of 10,000 border guards to the European Border Agency, Frontex.
Pécressen however, the vision is broadly parallel to that of Macron. The significance of the visions is that France will take over the presidency of the EU at the turn of the year.
“In European politics, the Macron era will be remembered for the return of France as a visionary,” says Miettinen.
According to Miettinen, the key concept is “strategic autonomy”. A few words suggest that Europe should survive on its own in the geopolitical storms of the world.
“France wants a more viable Europe that defends its interests in the international arena.”
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