LOS ANGELES — California has long drawn with its beauty and bustle — the seduction of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.
That appeal helped make it a cultural, economic and political force. For 170 years, growth was constant and expansion seemed limitless. By early 2020, California’s population had skyrocketed to nearly 40 million, with another 10 million expected in the coming decades.
Then, with the pandemic and its aftermath, the trend reversed: the State lost more people than it gained in each of the last three years and was reduced to less than 39 million inhabitants. Recent data from the State Department of Finance offers a surprising prediction: The population could stagnate over the next 40 years.
Suddenly, the Golden State, so proudly aware of its popularity, is forced to reconsider its identity.
When Adrian Dove, longtime chairman of the Kingdom Day Parade in South Los Angeles, moved as a child from Dallas, Texas to Los Angeles in 1945, he felt a sense of freedom about his ambitions. He graduated from Compton High School and then entered Harvard University. But now, at 88, he recognizes that similar trajectories may seem unattainable for many.
“California is still the dream, but it is not enough for everyone,” he said.
That sentiment resonates across the state as rents skyrocket, the median price of a single-family home hovers around $830,000, and homeless encampments proliferate.
“We are witnessing the death of what really made California great, which was its middle class,” said writer Hector Tobar, 60, whose novels have explored the economic divide in the state.
The most variable, and perhaps critical, component is migration. When Covid restrictions were in place, workers were allowed to do the same work remotely in another state, drastically reducing their expenses. And immigration was paralyzed.
A shortage of young people and immigrants will mean less consumer spending and a smaller workforce, threatening the dynamism that has fueled California’s growth for decades.
But population stabilization can be a good thing when it comes to creating more sustainable approaches as climate change forces California to think differently. For example, the growing threat of wildfires has persuaded many leaders that the state cannot continue converting rural land into suburbs.
California remains the most populous state in the US. The public agencies that analyze the data are not sounding the alarm.
“We have all the core industries, like entertainment and hospitality, and a great job market,” said Kome Ajise, executive director of the Southern California Association of Governments, a joint powers authority that focuses on mobility, sustainability and habitability.
Natalia Molina, a professor of American studies and ethnicity at the University of Southern California, said the state’s path can be seen “as a harbinger of what it means to not have affordable housing, investments in social welfare and clear immigration policies.”
However, he noted that immigrant communities have been forged that still feel special and worth staying for: “As long as people show up and are willing to do the work, the California dream is alive and well, if a little more anemic today.”
By: Corina Knoll
BBC-NEWS-SRC: http://www.nytsyn.com/subscribed/stories/6898192, IMPORTING DATE: 2023-09-19 19:20:09
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