In January, the ruble exchange rate against the euro and dollar will remain stable, Nikolai Pereslavsky, head of the “Support” department of CMS Group, told Izvestia. According to his forecast, the European currency will trade in the range of 97–107 rubles, the American currency – 87–100 rubles.
“The measures taken by the government had their effect, which predetermined the strengthening of the ruble by 10% from the maximum values at the beginning of October 2023. I consider the stability of the price of European oil, whose quotes exceed $80 per barrel, to be an important factor in the stability of the ruble,” the expert noted.
In his opinion, in the second half of January, volatility in the foreign exchange market will increase due to the activation of traders, but neither the upper nor the lower limit of the range will be overcome.
In turn, Arthur Meinhard, head of the analytical department for global markets at the investment company Fontvielle, noted that it is the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters that is the main factor in supporting the ruble exchange rate. He suggested that such a support measure would be in effect until the end of April 2024.
“The interest in the ruble on the part of the Russian government and the Bank of Russia is complex, but it has its own dilemma. On the one hand, a weak ruble leads to an acceleration of inflation in the country, but easily solves the issue of filling the budget. On the other hand, a strong ruble reduces the risk of import inflation, which caused prices to rise in the country, but also exposes the budget deficit. The current goal of the Russian government is to create a predictable course in [2024] year, which will be able to prevent import inflation from growing, while supporting the federal budget. As long as the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings by exporters is in effect, the government will be able to achieve this goal,” the analyst believes.
But, according to him, after the full or partial lifting of this rule, the ruble may begin to weaken due to a lack of currency supply on the market.
Meinhard expressed the opinion that in 2024, the devaluation of the ruble may continue, but at a slower pace, since the Russian government and the Bank of Russia will return to administrative decisions in the foreign exchange market to stop rising inflation and a strong devaluation of the national currency.
Earlier, on December 12, Nikolai Ryaskov, managing director for investments at PSB Management Company, gave Izvestia a forecast according to which until the end of the first quarter of 2024 the dollar exchange rate could be at the level of 90–100 rubles. He did not rule out the future growth of the American currency to 100–110 rubles. According to him, the exchange rate will continue to be influenced by geopolitics, volumes of sales of foreign currency earnings by exporters and the level of consumer demand, but the main catalysts will remain the dynamics of exports and imports, oil prices, inflation rates and the key rate.
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