Energy Estimate: Up to 370 million euros worth of Russian fossil energy has been imported to Finland during the Ukrainian war

After thatwhen Russia launched an attack on Ukraine, about 370 million euros worth of Russian fossil energy has been imported into Finland, according to the independent research organization Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air (Crea).

In its calculations, Crea utilizes open freight data. According to it, since February 24, a total of 15 transports of crude oil, coal and liquefied natural gas have been brought to Finnish ports. Crea estimates the total value of the transports at EUR 290 million, of which crude oil accounts for EUR 260 million.

On top of this will come natural gas pipeline deliveries as well as oil products coming by rail. Based on last year’s import flows and current market prices, Crea estimates that natural gas worth less than EUR 60 million and petroleum products worth less than EUR 20 million have been imported to Finland since the war broke out.

Thus, the total value of fossil imports to Finland during the first two months of the war would be 370 million euros.

Ukraine and many inside the EU have called for a cut in Russian energy imports. Energy and especially oil exports are the main source of revenue for the Russian state. Disrupting it would undermine the state’s ability to finance the invasion of Ukraine.

Crea calculates that since the start of the war, Russian coal, natural gas and oil have been imported into Europe worth about 44 billion euros. Because energy buyers have different contracts in which the price of energy is determined differently, Crea has sought to estimate the value of energy purchases using a model based on current market prices and historical price data.

The largest buyer has been Germany, whose imports are worth around € 9 billion. Well over half of this is natural gas.

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The largest buyer has been Germany, whose imports are worth around € 9 billion. Well over half of this is natural gas.

For now The EU has not been able to agree on large-scale energy sanctions on Russia, but many Western companies themselves have begun to avoid buying Russian energy. For example, fuel refiner Neste has said it has replaced Russian crude oil 85% with other grades of oil.

Based on the cargo data collected by Crean, the policies of Western companies have made it more difficult for Russia to export oil. A significant proportion of oil exports are by sea, and oil deliveries from Russian ports in April were one-fifth lower than before the war.

Based on the data, Russia has been able to redirect oil exports elsewhere, such as to India and Egypt, but export volumes to “atypical” countries are far from sufficient to compensate for lost exports to Europe. The difficulties in Russia’s oil exports are also reflected in the fact that more and more tankers are not leaving Russian ports without a predetermined destination. The buyer for the cargo is searched when the cargo is already in motion.

Crea calls on EU countries to completely cut off Russia’s energy imports. It recommends a ban on imports of Russian fossil energy or at least substantial penalties.

“In the medium term, all fossil fuel imports can be replaced by clean, fossil-free energy and energy efficiency measures if investment in these targets is started immediately. The benefits to the economy, health and national security would far outweigh the benefits of simply reorganizing global fossil fuel flows, ”says the lead analyst. Lauri Myllyvirta says in a press release.