thanks to a controversial change in criteria by the judges of the Constitutional Chamber on re-election, which until now was prohibited, This Saturday, June 1, Nayib Bukele will become the first president of the democratic era of El Salvador to assume a second consecutive term after winning the elections on February 4 with an overwhelming majority of 85 percent of the votes.
The 42-year-old leader will take office at the National Palace, in a ceremony attended by international leaders such as the Argentine president, Javier Milei, the Paraguayan president, Santiago Peña; or the king of Spain, Felipe VI.
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Following the reduction in violence and homicides in recent years, The economy displaced security as the main concern of the Salvadoran population and the honeymoon that the president is enjoying could be affected if he fails to face challenges such as poverty or inequality in the Central American nation.
Preparations for the investiture ceremony of Nayib Bukele’s second term.
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From gangs to the economy: this is how the priorities of Salvadorans changed
Violence and gangs drop to sixth and seventh place after occupying the top two spots for years. Between 2014 and 2019, for example, 80 percent of Salvadorans stated that the biggest concerns for the country’s citizens were crime and violence.
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Since then, El Salvador has become one of the nations that has reduced homicidal violence the most. To the point that Bukele affirmed that the country will become the “safest in the Western Hemisphere” in 2023. with a homicide rate of 2.4 per 100,000 inhabitants and an average of violent deaths of 0.3 between January and March 2024, according to figures from the Minister of Security, Gustavo Villatoro.
The mega-prison Center for Detention Against Terrorism (Cecot), where hundreds of members of the MS-13 and Barrio 18 gangs are held.
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The figure is far from what happened in 2015, when the country –with a rate of 105 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants- It was the most dangerous in the world among those who were not facing a war conflict due to the actions of the Mara Salvatrucha 13 and Barrio 18 gangs, to which 120,000 deaths are attributed in three decades – even more than the 75,000 reported in the Salvadoran civil war (1980-1992) -.
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”All the results that we have seen in reduction of homicides, in arrests, in reduction of violent crimes, have led to Bukele having these levels of popularity and having been re-elected with that level of votes. I don’t think it is in his plans that the security strategy will cease to be a priority in this new mandate and it is very likely that the exception regime will be maintained,” Valeria Vásquez, senior analyst at Control Risks, told EL TIEMPO.
And the fact is that citizens today perceive a greater degree of security and there is a feeling that the gangs have been removed from the neighborhoods and streets of almost the entire country. With which a Spanish editorial The world ensures that Bukele’s first great challenge in this mandate will be to maintain security and create a legal framework so that the gangs do not reactivate in the future.
The president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele.
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Poverty and cost of living on the rise in El Salvador
However, its main challenge will be face those challenges that went into the background for years and that are now becoming relevant among the population after the war against gangs, including the economic sphere which, according to Ana María Méndez-Dardón, director for Central America of the Washington Office for Latin America (Wola), has not reported any improvement during the Bukele period.
Economist José Luis Magaña told Efe that despite the slight growth in recent years, Areas such as agriculture have recorded a cumulative fall of 2 percent in the five-year period, while industry has fallen almost 9% between 2019 and 2023.
But, what most afflicts citizens is undoubtedly inequality, poverty and the high cost of the basic basket. A report from the Salvadoran newspaper The printing pressIn fact, he pointed out in March that El Salvador is now poorer and more unequal than four years ago.
According to the Survey of the National Statistics and Census Office of El Salvador, While in 2019, households living in poverty were 22.8 percent, by 2023 that figure rose to 27.2 percent. That is, more than 1.7 million people in a country of 6.3 million inhabitants.
And although the moderate poverty rate remains relatively stable, the extreme poverty rate grew and is close to 9 percent (8.7 percent in 2022, according to ECLAC figures), which represents more than 570,000 people. .
Street vendors offer their products outside the La Tiendona supply center, in San Salvador.
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On average, in the urban areas of the country alone, the basic basket rose from between 198 and 212 dollars between 2019 and 2022 to 257.81 dollars in 2023 (more than 990,000 Colombian pesos).
“Salaries are not enough, food is barely bought, excluding meat, chicken. That is no longer enough. Medicines are super expensive and housing is another item that has skyrocketed,” a Salvadoran woman told the local newspaper La Graphic Press.
The country is also affected by the high rate of labor informality, which amounts to 70 percent, the unemployment rate (17.3 percent), and other aspects such as the attraction of foreign investment, which is lower compared to other countries in the region; or the country’s high debt, which in March reached 30 billion dollars.
”While debt has decreased in recent years, it is still higher than pre-pandemic levels and the country’s fiscal position remains fragile. “The Government faces liquidity pressures and has few financing alternatives.”the World Bank also highlights.
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Painting with the portrait of President Nayib Bukele.
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”Bukele is going to have to maintain in the same way the positive results in security and improve the economic situation of the population, especially in relation to inflationary issues. Being a dollarized economy, El Salvador depends a lot on the monetary policy of the United States and that is why the impact on the price of the basic basket has been felt quite a bit lately,” says the senior analyst at Control Risks.
Eduardo Escobar, executive director of the organization Acción Ciudadana El Salvador, also told this newspaper that it is most likely that the government will not abandon its security strategy and to maintain measures such as the closure of municipalities or military deployment, but he will also choose to focus on the issue of low salaries, lack of employment or the high cost of living.
“Probably, for example, he will pass some subsidies, some issues regarding the basic basket. But everything will depend on how much the population accepts his measures to mitigate popular discontent,” he points out.
The increase in food prices is one of the main concerns of Salvadorans.
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“The support for Bukele is very high, almost religious in nature, “But if you don’t take care of the economic challenges, people are very sensitive and popularity can drop quickly.”Óscar Picardo, professor at the Salvadoran University Francisco Gavidia, also concluded in dialogue with the newspaper El Comercio.
Opponents, on the contrary, express their criticism and fears regarding reforms that have already been approved in parliament, such as one that will facilitate the approval of changes to the Constitution, and They ask the international community to keep its eyes on the government to prevent an authoritarian model from being consolidated in a country where the control and power of the president has increased in recent years.
ANGIE NATALY RUIZ HURTADO – INTERNATIONAL EDITORIAL – EL TIEMPO
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