Poland is the most severe with Russia and close to Ukraine, while Hungary belatedly joins the EU consensus
The so-called B9 -or Bucharest Bloc, where this group originated- has found new cohesion in the face of the migratory challenge stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Meeting in Warsaw, the leaders of nine European countries, today EU partners and also NATO members, but in Moscow’s orbit at the time of the Warsaw Pact, showed an unknown unity in a group that was not always harmonious or even hostile towards Brussels.
“We must support Ukraine more strongly, including the supply of weapons. We cannot stop at simply condemning Russia’s brutal attack,” Polish President Andrzej Duda said at the opening of the B9 summit. These kinds of proclamations are not unusual for the Polish head of state, who is close to the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party of Jaroslaw Kaczinski and his country’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki. All three represent the line of confrontation towards Moscow and have been demanding for years that NATO’s eastern flank be strengthened, as have the Baltic republics of Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia.
It does get stranger in the Hungary of Prime Minister Víktor Orbán, who as part of the European extreme right had stood out as a “friend” and political ally of Vladimir Putin. Orbán had a much harder time than other European Union (EU) partners to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. He did it about 24 hours later than the rest. But, until the contrary is proven, he now shares the discourse of closed support for the Ukrainian neighbor.
The B9 was born at the Romanian initiative under the impact of the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Along with Romania and Poland, in addition to the Baltics and Hungary, it was made up of Bulgaria, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Now it has been reactivated by the fear of Russia, shared by the countries that were once Soviet republics -such as the Baltics- or that remained within the Warsaw Pact. The president of the EC, Ursula von der Leyen, attended the meeting in Warsaw, albeit fleetingly, someone whom the Polish government usually receives with her nails out, for representing the successive files opened by Brussels against Poland.
More than in the Balkan war
In the face of the 2015 migration crisis, Poland and Hungary reacted by closing the door to refugees -not only Syrians-. In the following years they rejected any proposal from the European Commission (EC) for a balanced distribution of those asylum seekers or irregular immigration arriving through the Mediterranean. Neither Germany nor the southern European partners, such as Spain, managed to separate them from those positions.
Now they help the columns of Ukrainians who reach their borders, most of them women and children, since men between 18 and 60 years old have been mobilized for the defense of the country. Poland, the most reluctant country -along with Hungary- to receive refugees during 2015 and the following years, has already set up eight reception points, the main one in Medyka. He expects, according to his authorities, about 30,000 Ukrainians per day. Hungary, Slovakia and Romania, also bordering, have received in the first 24 hours after the invasion between 5,000 and 10,000 for each State. Each of these countries is responding to the migration challenge with agility and good logistics, including health care. Slovakia has enabled everything from sports halls to private fitness clubs. The ultra-nationalist Orbán has stated that the Russian invasion could cause a migration crisis even greater than the one triggered in the 1990s by the wars in the Balkans.
Germany, which in that 2015 crisis received almost a million asylum seekers, will be the final destination for many of those who are entering through Poland. The Government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already shown its willingness to provide “massive aid” to these border partners, especially Poland. Austria, a country until now more than restrictive in the reception of refugees, also offers its support. For the Executive of conservative chancellor Karl Nehammer, the situation in Ukraine is not comparable to Syria or Afghanistan. “It’s about helping your neighbor,” he said.
The UN estimates that the Russian invasion will cause one million displaced people from Ukraine, a country with 44 million inhabitants. A figure that can obviously go higher, depending on how far Putin’s troops finally penetrate.
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