Definition of ministry, political articulation and 8/1 await Lula when he returns to work

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) will return to the Palácio do Planalto this Wednesday, 3rd, after an eight-day break on the private beach of Restinga de Marambaia, in Rio de Janeiro. On his return to the federal capital, Lula will have to negotiate tough negotiations with Congress and resume dialogues about changes to be made at the top level of the government, especially in the Ministry of Justice, which will continue with Flávio Dino in command only until January 8th. .

Dino's succession and January 8th 'birthday' mobilize Lula's start of the year

Replacing Dino is one of the immediately defining issues that Lula will need to deal with. The current holder of the Justice portfolio will only take office as minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) on February 22, but Lula stated at the end of last year that he will remain in government until the first week of this year to participate in the ceremony of a year of the coup attempt that took place on January 8 last year, in Brasília.

The PT member intends to bring together the heads of the Three Powers and a good number of governors to symbolize the triumph of democratic institutions. However, opposition governors must skip the event under allegations of vacations, business trips and even 'lack of invitation'.

Once the festivities are over, Lula will once again turn to defining the new Minister of Justice. Without a clear successor, internal disputes within the government to appoint Dino's replacement intensified. Former STF minister Ricardo Lewandowski is considered the favorite for the position, but there are divergent groups on the Esplanada dos Ministérios who are still trying to convince Lula to nominate Planning Minister, Simone Tebet; the president of the PT, deputy Gleisi Hoffmann; or the president of Grupo Prerrogativa, Marco Aurélio Carvalho.

As shown by Estadão Column, even the government leader in the Senate, Jaques Wagner, entered the dispute to win the name of Wellington César Lima e Silva, who currently occupies the Special Secretariat for Legal Affairs (SAJ) of the Civil House of the Presidency of the Republic. Despite the moves, the president's interlocutors say that Lewandowski will only not be Minister of Justice if he doesn't want to.

Payroll exemption MP will require action from Palácio do Planalto

The Provisional Measure (MP) designed by Finance Minister Fernando Haddad's team to resume the gradual taxation of companies' payroll was poorly received by Congress. Senators promised to resist the changes made by the government's economic team and guarantee that the Palácio do Planalto will be resisted from the start.

The negative reaction is due, among other reasons, to the fact that parliamentarians published a bill that maintained the benefit for the sectors that employ the most until 2027 and also overturned Lula's veto of the measure. With this climate of tension installed, the president should join Haddad in attempts to negotiate with Congress.

The re-encumbrance of the payroll is another of the measures formulated by Haddad's team to increase revenue in search of zero deficit this year.

Veto on the calendar for payment of amendments should become a new clash with Congress

Lula sanctioned the 2024 Budget Guidelines Law (LDO) of 2024 with vetoes. One of the vetoed sections made it mandatory to commit resources to pay for tax amendments within 30 days after the proposal was released. This measure was harshly contested by the government while the LDO was being processed in Congress, as it took away from the president the power to define the flow of release of amendments.

In the order, the government argued that the calendar “would go against the principle that the federal Executive Branch establishes the financial reimbursement schedule”. During Lula's first year in office, it became customary to release binding amendments on the eve of important votes for the government.

Congress, however, should not back down from the increased power gained over parliamentary amendments, whether in the amount allocated to each parliamentarian or in defining when these amounts must be paid. Therefore, Lula will need to get involved in the articulations to prevent the overturn of yet another veto.

Lula should start discussions on ministerial reform

There is an expectation that the Esplanada dos Ministérios will undergo changes this year to correct the government's routes. Lula's interlocutors, however, claim that a broader reform, with changes in several portfolios, should not take place at the beginning of the year. The main exchange must be made only at the Ministry of Justice.