Washington says invasion of Ukraine will begin in next 48 hours, reported news week Wednesday. According to the American magazine, that message has now been conveyed to the Ukrainian government. President Volodymyr Zelensky declared a state of emergency on Wednesday. Last Tuesday, Zelensky announced that reservists would be called up for the army. Russian diplomats have since left the embassy in Kiev. Tensions mounted on Wednesday evening when it became known that the heads of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics had asked Putin for help against the “military aggression of the Ukrainian regime”.
1 Is the Russian army ready for the attack?
A week ago, Russian troops around Ukraine were ready for a smaller operation, says defense expert Nick Reynolds, associated with the British think tank RUSI. Troop building has continued since then. “They now have everything in place to launch a major military operation.”
With the mobilization of the troops, the clock has started ticking
Nick Reynolds Defense expert
Russia is now estimated to have concentrated some 200,000 troops around Ukraine. Core of the force are estimated to be 120 battle task groups (BTGs) of about 800 to 1,000 men – about two-thirds of the combat units of the Russian army. “I think it can be done from a military-technical point of view,” says General Retd (disabled) Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Royal Netherlands Army. “This operation has been prepared for a long time. That is why the troops will now be able to actually act.” In recent days, dozens of videos have appeared on Tik Tok showing movements of large amounts of military equipment. On Wednesday, the stream of videos appeared to have dried up — perhaps a sign that the troop movements have been completed. “Many units have taken forward positions in combat formation,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press briefing on Tuesday. “They have left their camps for the field, and are ready to strike.”
2 How long can Putin delay the attack?
The contraction of almost 200,000 soldiers is a huge logistical operation, says Colonel BD and Afghanistan veteran Teun Baartman. “It’s a city like Tilburg or Groningen, after all, which you have to provide with food every day.” Mart de Kruif was commander of the Southern Command of ISAF in Afghanistan from 2008 to 2009 at the head of some 45,000 soldiers. “We needed 150 liters of water and 150 liters of fuel per soldier per day.” But logistics is not the forte of the Russian army. Only about thirty percent of the troops in NATO armed forces are intended for combat, the rest is support, explains Colonel BD Baartman. “In the Russian armed forces, those relationships have traditionally been the other way around.” Now that the units are no longer stationed at central ‘staging areas‘ but have taken their positions in the field, supply has also become a lot more difficult.
In recent years, the Russian armed forces have practiced concentrating large numbers of soldiers in large exercises such as ‘Zapad’ (‘West’), says Nick Reynolds. However, the current troop build-up is of much greater magnitude. “By concentrating and supporting such a troop concentration, the Russian armed forces are entering uncharted territory. Even the most experienced generals will never have done such a thing.” The Russian Committee of Soldiers’ Mothers, which stands up for the rights of soldiers, reported last Monday that about 100 soldiers had been sleeping for five days on the floor of the small station of Dolbino, about 15 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. The men had no water or emergency rations, and were dependent on volunteers to bring food. The cold and wet weather will also affect the morale of the troops, says Nick Reynolds. This also reduces combat power. Reynolds therefore suspects that as the days go by, the pressure on the general staff in Moscow increases. If the decision to attack has not yet been made, it will have to be made at short notice – or else the soldiers will have to return to their encampments. Reynolds: “With the mobilization of the troops, the clock has started ticking.”
3 How would a Russian attack on Ukraine begin?
All military experts agree on what the first phase of a Russian invasion will look like. The war will begin with the firing of cruise missiles from Russian naval ships and Iskander ballistic missiles from land, capable of destroying strategic targets many hundreds of kilometers away such as Ukrainian command centers and communications hubs. After that, says General Retd De Kruif, Russian warplanes will focus on eliminating the Ukrainian air force and anti-aircraft defenses. Opinions differ on what will happen next, but everyone foresees a Russian advance from different directions: from the north towards Kiev, from the northeast towards Kharkov, from the Donbas and from the Crimea – probably also via a landing on the coast at Mariupol or Odessa. The Ukrainian army will not be able to stop that advance, Nick Reynolds expects. The British defense specialist was in Ukraine for several weeks and wrote a report about it.
Although the Ukrainian armed forces are in much better shape than in 2014, much of the equipment is outdated. Russian modern fighter jets will within days have made short work of the Ukrainian air force, which dates back to Soviet times. The Ukrainian air defense is also in poor condition, Reynolds says. “The Ukrainians are not good at protecting the troops on the ground from air strikes. That makes it difficult to maneuver without major losses.” On top of that, the Russian superiority in artillery is added. Western arms supplies, such as US Javelin anti-tank missiles, are a welcome addition to Ukraine, but will not tip the balance.
Still, a quick Russian victory is not certain. On the right bank of the Dnieper River, Russian troops have to cross the dreaded swamps of Pripyat to threaten Kiev, explains Mart de Kruif. When it comes to street fighting in the big cities, Russian military superiority is worth little. Nick Ryenolds spent some time with the Ukrainian 95th Airborne Brigade on the Donbas front. “Everyone was very determined. The men know what to expect.” Make no mistake, says Mart de Kruif. “This will be a very bloody war, of a dimension that we no longer know.”
A version of this article also appeared in NRC on the morning of February 24, 2022
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