There are thousands of soldiers on the Ukrainian border with fresh combat experience from Syria.
“Situation is on the edge of a knife, ”describes the former commander of the Defense Forces Jarmo Lindberg situation between Ukraine and Russia.
“All Russian forces are now there and progress has been made, with the parties accusing each other of using indirect fire.”
HS interviewed Lindberg on Saturday afternoon, when the situation on the Ukrainian-Russian border was open.
Lindberg doesn’t want to leave to guess whether Russia is attacking and whether there will be a war. He urges to look at all the military capabilities Russia has brought to the borders. He thinks it says a lot already.
“The situation has progressed like a train in the light of the numbers and according to everything publicly seen and open to intelligence. Force has been concentrated there over a wide area and the situation has not changed, despite negotiations. ”
He describes the situation with a fridge magnetic parable he saw “somewhere in the some”: The two monologues are not dialogue.
“The concentration of power has only continued and each time the outcome of the negotiations has been that no agreement has been reached on the core issues.”
He estimates that about 75 percent of the entire Russian land force is already on Ukraine’s borders. According to him, such an amount is not concentrated only for exercises.
“There have been surprising jumps in the number of troops. It is now said that there would already be 160,000 or even 190,000 soldiers. In addition to them, you have to look at, for example, combat helicopters, assault planes, bombers and landing craft in the Black Sea, ”Lindberg lists.
“The capabilities that Russia is now using there allow for cyber-attacks, cyber-attacks, the disruption of electronic warfare, the use of assault planes and bombers, and the missile’s targeted targets at critical points in Ukraine. And, of course, there is always the possibility of a large-scale ground attack, ”he continues.
Lindberg does not want to assess how the attack would start and what kind of target the capital of Ukraine, for example, would be. It has become clear that developments in recent days have been increasingly worrying.
Read more: The United States considers Russia’s invasion of Kiev likely, but “You can’t just walk to Kiev,” says director of the Department of Military Defense
The President of the United States Joe Biden Lindberg gave a statement on the outcome of the attack. Biden said late Friday in Finnish time that he believes in the Russian president Vladimir Putin made its decision to attack Ukraine.
“When he said it about it directly, it has to be based on something. Otherwise, there is a risk of losing its credibility. ”
Later on Saturday, the Secretary of Defense also Lloyd Austin said Russian troops were ready to attack and attack the group.
Read more: Biden: Putin has made the decision to attack Ukraine, targeting probably the capital Kiev
Lindberg also recalls an essential point related to the current combat experience of the Russian military. There are war veterans with only a few years or months of war experience, with tens of thousands of soldiers trained in Syria, especially commanders.
“Russia has already piloted a situation in Syria like the one on Ukraine’s borders. For example, they know how to combine the information gathered by airplanes and other sensors into a common fire use for all different platforms. There is a big imbalance in Ukraine. “
What about how does the former Commander of the Defense Forces see Russia’s actions in relation to the capabilities of the Finnish army? Lindberg does not want to comment on how the Defense Forces will learn from the situation.
“After the end of the Cold War, the operations of the Finnish Defense Forces looked conservative, while we still had a large reserve. Since then, procurement decisions have been made for long-range missiles, among other things. At the same time, in addition to Poland, the largest artillery in Europe was held. ”
Then the situation changed and now Europe is facing war.
“Surprise surprise. We now have top performances, but unlike many other countries, we still have that vast reserve, ”he says.
Russia, he said, has brought to the Ukrainian borders traditional weapons of warfare, which he describes as hammers and saws of a toolbox, and more sophisticated weapons, namely, tools for electronic warfare and cyberattacks. He describes them as power tools.
“The Finnish toolbox also has its own basic tools and power tools.”
He also does not want to guess how the situation will continue. But he knows that the situation cannot continue indefinitely as it is now. The more combat-ready and closer to the border the troops are, the more difficult it is to maintain them for long periods of time.
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