The peak of the ongoing Covid wave “is near”. And in the end, “with such a contagious virus, it is very likely that one third to half of the population, more or less symptomatically, has been infected with Omicron 4-5”. This is the estimate of the epidemiologist Carlo La Vecchia, a professor at the State University of Milan.
“From the point of view of the trend of the Covid infection curves recorded, yesterday’s average weekly figure indicates 98 thousand cases per day. We are not far from the peak. The climb was around + 15% yesterday, so it is leveling off. Ed the Omicron 5 wave is likely to reach “plateau” over the next week or 2, “the expert at Adnkronos Health predicts. But, he adds, “a problem is that the recorded numbers are very far from the real ones”.
“In part it happens due to the widespread use of do-it-yourself tests”, whose positive outcome is not always formalized, “and another large share of” submerged “is given by asymptomatic or paucisymptomatic diseases. Many Omicron 4 and 5 – reminds the epidemiologist – they bring from a clinical point of view one or a few days of sore throat or cold, especially in vaccinated people or in those who have had other Omicron “. So, La Vecchia calculates, “there could be up to 10% of the positive population today. So far I had estimated about 3 million, but it could be even more. In any case, it is not the figure of 1.3 million registered positives”: a a realistic figure would be “several million. Which – the expert points out – makes the control of the epidemic cycle and tracing very difficult, and unfortunately also containment. The contagion will run out largely due to the exhaustion of the susceptible”.
The numbers expected at the peak of the current wave? “In terms of official, recorded data, I don’t expect much more than 100,000” cases. “Probably next week the average figure of new daily cases will grow by another 10% and then will probably level between 110 and 120 thousand cases. While the real daily infections are many hundreds of thousands, but most of them escape tracking”.
#Covid #Italia #Italians #hit #Omicron