Correspondent’s analysis|A criminal conviction can eventually be reflected in society as a whole, writes Elina Väntönen, HS’s Washington correspondent.
Washington
On Thursday afternoon at 16:20 the announcement came unexpectedly.
The jury had reached its decision in the historic trial in which the accused was the former president of the United States Donald Trump.
The jury of 12 New Yorkers reached a consensus faster than expected. Soon, all 34 counts were reviewed in the courtroom one at a time: guilty, guilty, guilty.
And so Trump became the first president of the United States to be convicted of a crime.
So what now?
In an election year the most obvious question is what political consequences a criminal conviction might have.
Unfortunately, there is only one correct answer to that: nobody knows.
Of course, opinion polls have been used to find out how the verdict would affect the voting decision of Americans. The simplified answer: just a little.
A criminal conviction can make mostly independent voters hesitate. One query by 11 percent of them would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were found guilty.
In the Libra states, of course, that may or may not be the deciding factor.
In the same way, it may be that a larger part of the Republicans than expected thought about their voting decision once more, now that Trump really became a convicted criminal.
As the saying goes: nobody knows.
However, this does not mean that the trial and its outcome are not important. The effect of a criminal conviction on society as a whole may turn out to be more important than the political consequences.
Trump’s supporters and opponents gathered at the courthouse in New York on Thursday.
“Maga wing” make up about a third of the Republican Party. They are extreme conservatives and more loyal to Trump than to the party. (Maga comes from the words Make America Great Again.)
A criminal conviction in itself won’t move them because they’ll vote for Trump anyway.
However, it may further radicalize them.
In the eyes of this group, the verdict sort of confirmed what Trump has been telling them all along: the judiciary is rotten, the “system” can’t be trusted.
Trump just threw gasoline on the flames as soon as he walked out of the courtroom.
“This is shameful,” he said. “This was a fraudulent trial presided over by an obstructed and corrupt judge.”
Trump didn’t say anything new, but in the new situation, words carry a different weight — especially for these staunch supporters, many of whom are already disconnected from reality. They have swallowed Trump’s lies about election fraud and the dishonesty of social institutions.
On January 6, 2021, we saw what can happen when Americans, frustrated and fed up with the experience of unfairness, break free.
It goes without saying that fear is no reason to leave anyone unjudged. The law must be the same for everyone. However, concern about unrest and political violence is inescapably present.
Ex-President Donald Trump was photographed moments after a jury found him guilty.
About threat photos nevertheless, the Trump campaign is of course trying to use the criminal conviction in the campaign.
It wasn’t long before I got a text message on my phone. (I’m on the list to stay informed about campaign communications.)
“BREAKING FROM TRUMP: I WAS JUST CONVICTED IN A RIGGED TRIAL! I AM A POLITICAL PRISONER!”
So: I was just convicted in a fraudulent trial, I am a political prisoner.
At the end of the message there was a link to the campaign page, which directs you to donate money. It has worked before: when charges were brought in another lawsuit and a “mug shot” of Trump was published, donations accumulated more than seven million dollars.
Next is expected.
The sentence will be read on July 11. There is a maximum of four years in prison, but fines or probation are more likely.
The timing is quite good: just four days later, the Republican Party Convention begins, where Trump is to be confirmed as the party’s presidential candidate.
That’s what happens anyway. The party doesn’t even have a way to change the candidate at this point.
And since Trump is appealing the sentence, it will not be legally binding in the summer. We may have to wait until after the presidential elections in November.
Eventually Republicans are counting on the fact that criminal trials—this one or three others—don’t matter.
It was the criminal charges that brought Trump to the position he is in now. Trump, who was briefly sidetracked by the lawsuits, managed to return to the center of politics. Grudgingly, they restored his credibility.
This is how Trump sees it: the “real judgment” is ahead on November 5, when the American people vote.
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