The third part of this month’s analysis of the situation by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank ended at 11:38 am on Wednesday, the 21st. The session had started at 10:20 am.
The conjuncture analysis is the part of the Copom meeting that revisits important topics for decision-making on the Selic rate.
Still this Wednesday afternoon, the second part of the meeting will take place, when the collegiate will define the Selic level, which will be announced from 6:30 pm.
Despite the government’s strong offensive, the majority expects the Selic rate to remain at 13.75% per year for the seventh time in a row. Of 46 financial institutions consulted by Projeções Broadcast, 45 expect stability and only one expects a drop to 13.50% per annum.
But most of the market predicts that the Central Bank will start the easing cycle in August, exactly one year after ending the longest monetary tightening in its history. Since the May Copom, a set of favorable news has accumulated in the inflationary scenario and has been recognized by members of the collegiate.
The Copom meets this Wednesday with an embezzlement for the second time in a row: the Monetary Policy director. Bruno Serra left BC at the end of March and his deputy in the Senate is scheduled for the 27th of this month. Ailton Aquino will also be questioned by the Supervisory Board. But the current director, Paulo Souza, remains in office awaiting the transition.
With the embezzlement, the Copom meets with 8 members. If there is a tie of votes on the Selic level, the president of the BC, Roberto Campos Neto, breaks the tie.
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