The main factor behind the strengthening of the ruble is the trade surplus, but by the end of the year, we can expect a reduction in exports of commodities from the Russian Federation with lower prices in the commodity markets, while imports are gradually recovering, which will affect the trade surplus. This was reported to Izvestia on September 28 by the strategy director of Finam Investment Company Yaroslav Kabakov.
“Given that the budget rule will come into effect next year, the ruble exchange rate may significantly weaken against major currencies. It is worth noting that, in addition to obvious trends, infrastructure risks remain under new sanctions – at the end of the year we can see a completely different mechanism for the formation of exchange rates in Russia,” he said.
At the same time, Anton Prokudin, chief macroeconomist at Ingosstrakh Investments Management Company, told Izvestiya that a slow weakening of the ruble is expected in the coming months. According to him, this is due to the fact that the growth of imports is slow, and a drop in exports is possible only with a noticeable decrease in oil and gas prices, which is not yet predicted on the market.
“The rate by the end of the year is unlikely to exceed 70, and at the beginning of next year for 80 rubles / $. Only with a deep drawdown in oil and gas, the rate will shift by 100 rubles, ”the expert concluded.
Svetlana Godlina, Chairman of the Board of Modulbank, called the situation with the exchange rate ambiguous.
“On the one hand, the serious strengthening of the ruble is unprofitable for the budget of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, there is a risk that the conversion of the dollar-ruble pair at the NCC (National Clearing Center – Ed.) will stop, which may increase pressure on the dollar and reduce its value against the ruble, ”she said.
Earlier in the day, Vedomosti wrote that the Ministry of Economic Development expects weakening of the Russian currency against the dollar to 66 rubles in December. According to the department’s estimates, by the end of the year, compared to September, the ruble will lose about 8% against the dollar. In 2023, the national currency is predicted to weaken to 68.3 rubles / $. In December next year, indicators of 70.2 rubles / $ can be reached, the ministry predicts.
The day before, Alexander Dzhioev, an analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company, told Izvestia that earlier the ruble was strengthened by the tax period, during which some companies sell foreign exchange earnings to pay tax liabilities. The ratio of export and import flows, the state of the country’s balance of payments also had an impact.
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