In Mexico we have a problem: not many surveys are published that assess the popularity of the President and his management of the government. On the site oraculus.mx we have identified only 10 published so far this year (6 telephone and 4 housing). Nothing for a country the size of Mexico. In the United States, so far in May alone, 14 polls have been published on Biden’s popularity. Mexico is not the United States, but neither do we deserve such a shortage of surveys.
Well, with the little data we have, we have to conclude that López Obrador continues to be a phenomenon in terms of popularity. Yesterday, the Reforma newspaper presented its national housing survey. 62% of Mexicans approve of the way AMLO is doing his job as President. 32% disapprove. His popularity increased four percentage points in the first four months of the year.
In the poll of polls model of oraculus.mx we add the results of Reforma and practically the same results: 62% approval versus 33% (it is logical: the few polls that exist end up weighing heavily on the result) .
In comparative terms, 41 months into office, AMLO is the most popular President of the last five. He is followed by Zedillo with 59% approval, Calderón with 57%, Fox with 54% and Peña with an abysmal 31%.
While AMLO continues to be popular, the population disapproves of his government’s handling of the two issues that most interest people: insecurity and the economy. The numbers of this first category are very bad. In the Reforma survey, 81% of Mexicans believe that femicides have increased in the last 12 months, 67% violence in the country, 66% insecurity and 62% the presence of organized crime. In the economy, 41% of people express that the country’s economy has worsened in the last 12 months and 36% report that their personal economic situation has worsened in the same period. 71% of Mexicans think that inflation has harmed them and their families in the last year.
The President, on the other hand, is doing very well in evaluating how he is treating social programs, education, and, incredible as it may seem, health. I add two more data. 55% of the population considers that the President was favored after the popular referendum to revoke his mandate despite the low turnout. And 51% say that the decision of the opposition parties to reject the electricity reform harms the country.
By all accounts, they are good numbers for the President. You have to explain why. I launch a couple of hypotheses.
First, April was a month of much promotion for the President regarding the revocation of the mandate. The cities were filled with spectacular announcements in favor of AMLO. Morena’s rallies, flyers, and gangs made a lot of propaganda. Apparently, it worked: the President’s popularity went up.
Second, the President continues to have an unmatched ability to control the narrative of what is happening in the country, and so far, no one has been able to effectively challenge him.
Morning conferences are his main weapon. From there comes the narrative of what, according to him, is happening in the country.
Take the case of health. The data on the management of the covid-19 pandemic, the shortage of medicines and the state of public health centers are dismal. And yet, 51% of Mexicans believe that AMLO is treating the health issue well.
How to explain?
Well, precisely because in AMLO’s narrative what his government did with the pandemic was a success, the shortage is an invention or is about to be resolved and services are being improved in such a way that we will have one of the best health systems in all the world. The President sells an alternate reality and always offers hope. There are many people who believe him.
On the other hand, there is very little that challenges the presidential vision. Some newspapers, radio news, and television programs do report what is happening with the actual data. On top of that, López Obrador is in charge of disqualifying them from the presidential pulpit. Add that the opposition is just waking up and lacks a strategy to counter the president’s narrative. The result is a very asymmetrical situation in the battle of the narratives in favor of AMLO.
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