In memory of my brother
Ricardo Rocha; we will miss you
Perhaps not for having instruments of canthe presidential succession of the President Lopez Obrador –that not of Brunette— is part of an intricate political mechanism that has given the Mexican president also determining spaces in the presidential successions of USA and of the opposition alliance PRI-PAN-Party of the Chuchos-Coparmex-Lorenzo Córdova-Casa Blanca-Claudio X.
The political and physical setbacks of the President Joseph Biden and above all the american agenda Short-term –migration, drug traffickingtrade treaty, productive investments–are naturally passing through Mexicoso the viability of Biden –if he holds out until November 2024– and of the Democratic Party depends on Mexican behavior in the face of migratory harassment and on drug dealer for Republican candidates donald trump and Ron DeSantis.
The border Mexico is going to overheat in the next four months due to the offensive of Republican governors to send troops of the National Guard to reinforce above all the area of Texasso the political value of the governor texan gregg abbott would give the Republicans –as in 2016 and 2020– the incapacity argument of the Democratic administration Biden-Kamala Harrisso far the two most important contenders for the Democratic nomination, to resolve the long-running border crisis with Mexico.
In this sense, what the President Lopez Obrador in immigration matters and above all how he does it will tip the balance, as in 2016 with Peña grandson and in 2020 with himself, and he will be an influential element in the trend of the American voting in November of next year.
The PRIANREDE alliance and its great neoconservative coalition exploded in pieces in the Mexican election, but the main message was that the pact promoted by the businessman Claudio X. Gonzalez to appropriate –in purchase mode– the main opposition party and the other two on the way to collapse, has not been able to force the politicians to keep their word: the more spaces the opposition loses, the greater the elements of rupture in the power groups that are fighting Brunette for 2024.
As the main opposition party, in the BREAD a rebatinga was already released by the candidacybut leaving clear indications that he will not let go of the determination to impose a PAN member as presidential candidate, whatever his allies do, which means, in real politik, that the opposition alliance in the presidential candidacy will not reach 2024, although The three opposition party leaders would now be worrying more about the legislative candidacies because the real Mexican battle of 2024 will be in Congress.
The disruptive factor in opposition alliance It is located in the political strategy of President López Obrador when managing the succession of Morena as a determining factor of the opposition presidential candidacy, in addition to the fact that he has known how to take advantage of the political or ideological apparatus of the mornings to introduce political instabilities among the opponents, especially in the PAN.
For the time being, the opposition is going to define the coalitionist presidential candidacy –if it succeeds– based on defeating the brunette candidate and not as a way of presenting an alternative offer to society, in addition to the fact that within the PAN a real civil war was already unleashed for the nomination, with the confrontation stimulated from National Palace between Santiago Creel Miranda and lilly tellezspiced up the conflict with the co-optation of PAN governors, including the Yucatecan Mauricio Villa as a PAN corcholata promoted by López Obrador and the pre-candidate Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo.
Hence the appreciation that the president it has no less than three presidential successions to resolve.
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