No be is the freest and cleanest election in the history of Mexicoas he returned to say he President López Obrador Yesterday in the morning. They will, however, be the most violent elections we have had in recent decades: was 22 murders of candidatesSecretary of Security Rosa Icela Rodríguez said yesterday, but they are many more who have been attacked and/or killed for being part of a campaign team, for being applicants without having registered still, for being relatives of a candidate. Are hundreds, maybe thousandswe do not have a complete figure, those who have resigned to its candidacyto party positions, to representation in the boxes, out of fear or pressure.
We have one choicefor the first time since 1994that shows structural challenges: supervisors who resign or are fired days before the elections, problems setting up polling stations in many places in the country, areas where the INE has not been able to enter. An INE that since the arrival of Guadalupe Taddei has resigned many of his obligations, from managing the timing and financing of the campaign to the presidential intervention in the elections: the President López Obrador has 53 precautionary measures against him by intervention in the CampaignWhat use are they in legal terms? He president has been proselytizing since the morning each and every day of this campaign… and nothing has happened.
The surveys are so many and with such different tendencies that they have not served to guide the vote with certainty. Let’s see what happens on Sunday, but it seems to me that the election will be more disputed than those surveys show: for now, beyond the presidential election, the elections in Mexico City, Veracruz, Morelos, Guanajuato, Yucatán and Jalisco (in this case in favor of the Citizen Movement) are states that the ruling party can lose. Brunette Only the local elections in Chiapas and Tabasco are certain. That fact alone should make us think that the election will not be a mere procedure.
All of this is related to the alignments that we will have after June 2 and that have already been revealed in these weeks. I am not surprised by Alejandra del Moral’s change, that just this Monday she announced that she actually supports Claudia Sheinbaum. Nor does it surprise me that a politician changes, in accordance with his personal interests, his political flag. In reality, Alejandra, which was a position of Governor Alfredo del Mazo, was already in talks with Claudia’s people since last January, February. When she took a photo with Xochitl on February 21, reaffirming that he supported her candidacy, he had already had talks with Claudia’s team, which had even offered him a senatorship for the Green Party. The relationship with the Morena candidate’s team had been built since then.
It is not an exception either. There are many who were close to President Peña Nieto who today are in the ranks of the ruling party. There are Alejandra del Moral and of course Alfredo del Mazo and Alejandro Murat, who hope to achieve some position with the new administration. Eruviel Avila, Peña Nieto’s successor in the state of Mexico, is a candidate for the Green party. He does not have a candidacy, but they assure that Miguel Osorio Chong is also operating for the Green. Claudia Ruiz Massieu is a candidate for MC; Quirino Ordaz, who managed part of Peña’s campaign finances and was governor of Sinaloa, is today the ambassador to Spain and the former governor of Sonora, Claudia Pavlovich, is the consul in Barcelona. Marco Mena, the former governor of Tlaxcala, is the director of the National Lottery; Carlos Joaquín, the outgoing governor of Quintana Roo, is ambassador to Canada and Omar Fayad, former governor of Hidalgo, is the ambassador to Norway. And in minor positions there are many more.
Some were good officials, governors, legislators, others were not, but what matters is alignment. It is true that Alejandro Moreno distanced many of them from the PRI, but when there is such a marked realignment, only one person cannot be held responsible for it. It is a movement of an entire political group.
If Claudia becomes president, this realignment of forces will have political and legislative consequences. Some underestimate the Green party, but many of these positions and characters (and others, according to the electoral result) will be channeled towards the 4T through that route. The same will happen with Movimiento Ciudadano, at least with the groups that Dante Delgado controls and represents. Jorge Alvarez Maynez. Morena is not in a position to achieve at the polls that qualified majority that President López Obrador wants, but with a series of agreements in the next legislature it can have a perhaps not qualified but important majority.
Paradoxically, to advance in this, it will have to develop a policy of dialogues and agreements that President López Obrador rejected and that caused, therefore, the current polarization and legislative stagnation.
Next Sunday we will have to vote and do it thinking about how the balances of power will be in the next six-year term. Because it is not only about the presidency of the republic, with all its weight and importance, but about the balance between majorities and minorities in a system that should remain democratic.
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