The party in power in Canada, as is happening in the United States with the Democrats, is no longer so sure that its best card for the next elections is the current head of the Executive. For several months now, the Canadian Conservatives have been leading the polls ahead of the elections scheduled for 2025. The polls also reflect a sharp drop in the popularity of Justin Trudeau. However, what happened last week in an Ontario constituency has shown that the liberals’ poor performance no longer only translates into percentages among citizens consulted, but also into ballots at the polls.
In the early hours of Tuesday, electoral authorities declared Don Stewart, the candidate for the Conservative Party of Canada, the winner of the Toronto-St Paul’s riding. Stewart beat Liberal Leslie Church by a margin of 1.6%. This special election was held because MP Carolyn Bennett vacated her seat in January. A few months later, she became the Canadian ambassador to Denmark. The results of the vote generated a wave of reaction in the media and political corridors, as the riding had been a Liberal stronghold for 31 years.
On the same day that the Conservative victory was announced, Trudeau admitted that the vote had not produced the expected results. “But I want to make it clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations,” he said at an event in Vancouver. However, Trudeau once again stressed that he will seek a fourth term in the 2025 elections. He also stated that the Liberal Government has a lot of work to do, although citizens must choose between the future and voices that refer to policies of the past, in clear reference to conservatives.
Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, spread a message on social networks after his candidate’s victory: “Here is the verdict: Justin Trudeau cannot continue. He must now call elections on the carbon tax.” Poilievre is especially critical of Ottawa’s levies related to greenhouse gas emissions. This week, an Abacus Data poll gives his party a 19-point lead. The previous week, another poll by the Ipsos firm showed that 68% of those surveyed want Trudeau to leave office this year.
Several heavyweights in the Government, such as Chrystia Freeland (deputy prime minister) and Jean-Yves Duclos (Minister of Public Services), have publicly reiterated their support for Trudeau, although recognizing that the Liberals must redouble their efforts. Other deputies have similarly expressed that the prime minister is the right person to continue governing. However, Canadian media, such as the CBC network and The Canadian Press agency, obtained statements – under condition of anonymity – from some parliamentarians who question Trudeau’s leadership or who comment that it is already too late for such a significant change. because the federal elections are scheduled for fall 2025.
On Friday, former Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said the Liberals need a new leader. “The Liberal Party of Canada is not the party of one person, but rather the sum of values that drive its desire to improve the lives of Canadians,” said McKenna, a close associate of Trudeau from 2015 to 2021. Also on Friday, the CBC reported that Liberal MP Wayne Long sent a message to his fellow MPs calling for new leadership “for the good of the country.” The next meeting of Liberal MPs is scheduled for September, a few days before parliamentary work resumes. However, several party members are calling for that meeting to be brought forward.
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In addition to causing an earthquake among the liberal ranks, the vote in the Toronto-St Paul’s constituency left a curious fact. For the first time in a Canadian federal election, a candidate did not receive any votes. Félix-Antoine Hamel, one of the 84 candidates for deputation, could not even cast a ballot in his favor because he lives in Montreal. Hamel is a member of a committee calling for reform of the Canadian electoral system. One form of protest by this group was to register a legion of candidates: 77 of the 84 who participated in these elections.
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