The imminent return of donald trump to the White House is causing some concern. Some of the measures that the employer is expected to implement during his second term as president of the United Statesas already announced during the election campaign, will, in the opinion of experts, have profound implications for geopolitics and global economyand in everything related to the energy transition and the fight against climate change -not only for the country but also at a global level-, the latter issues on which he already demonstrated his position during his first term.
It is more than likely that one of his first decisions as president will be US withdrawal from the Paris Agreementsomething that he already did in his previous mandate and that Biden he took it upon himself to reverse when he arrived at the White House.
A decision that, according to experts, could discourage other countries from complying with their climate goals, which would undoubtedly have a negative impact on achieving the objective of preventing the planet’s temperature from increasing above 2°C with respect to the pre-industrial stage. And, for Donald Trump, “climate change is the biggest hoax of all time.” A statement that comes, precisely, from the person who will lead the second country with the most greenhouse gas emissions emits after China.
One of the strong points in energy policy will be the support for the hydrocarbon sector. He oil and the gas will regain an even greater prominence if possible, especially the frackingwith the aim of turning the country into an energy self-sufficient economy.
In fact, the current data is more than outstanding. Natural gas and oil production levels are marking record levels: Oil production currently exceeds the barrier of 13 million barrels per day and, with regard to gas, this type of fuel has led the country to become the world’s main exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2023.
The choice of Chris Wright, CEO of Liberty Energy (one of the main US oil and gas companies) as the next secretary of energy and that of Doug Burgum, governor of north dakota (third US oil producer), as ssecretary of the Department of the Interior (he was one of the politicians who took a stand against the temporary pause to explore and produce oil and gas on federal lands), they reaffirm Trump’s commitment to fossil fuels.
Burgum will chair the National Energy Councilof which Wright will also be a part. A new institution that will be integrated, as Trump himself has stated, “by all the departments and agencies involved in the granting of permits, production, generation, distribution, regulation and transportation of all forms of energy.”
One of the issues that Burgum will address is lift the temporary suspension to grant new licenses to export LNG that the Biden administration established in January 2024 with the objective of analyzing the impact of said exports on the country’s economy, energy security and the environment.
At that time, the Department of Energy began a review of previous studies supporting natural gas shipments to different regions of the world. Almost a year later, the new report has arrived and the content is very clear.
The document reflects that current LNG exports are more than enough to satisfy global demand in the coming decades, so completely lifting restrictions would cause energy prices in the United States to skyrocket by 30%. This price increase, the document indicates, would not only affect the familiesbut also to industrial sector. The report also notes that if America’s export power is unleashed unchecked, lower global prices will displace renewables in other nations, leading to a increase in global emissions and causing a step back in the fight against climate change.
Setback in renewables?
He renewable deployment in the United States could be affected if Donald Trump decides to eliminate the funds that the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) has been allocated to the development of this type of projects. Enacted in August 2022 to combat rising prices and climate change, the IRA contemplates millionaire loans and subsidies, as well as major tax exemptions for the green and electric vehicle industries, under the condition that many of these goods are manufactured in the country.
Experts believe that the number of projects and jobs that have been launched in these two years in the clean energy sector, more than supports the success of this Law, so they believe that Trump will not repeal it, but, in any case, will make some adjustments.
However, the appointment of Lee Zeldinandxnew york congressmanto direct the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)does not bring good omens. Zeldin, who has said he will help reduce regulatory excesses, revitalize the automotive industry and make the country a world leader in AI, voted against the IRA at the time. In relation to regulatory excesses, Trump has promised streamline permissions to any company that invests more than 1 billion dollars in the country.
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