Yahya Sinwar, head of Hamas and mastermind of the October 7 attacks, He has been killed by Israel. And the implications for the conflict of Loopfor the other Israeli military offensives in Lebanon and the occupied West Bank, and for the country’s internal politics are very relevant. There will be war – or wars – before the murder of the 62-year-old militant veteran. And war – or wars – later.
One of the main repercussions will obviously be for Hamas, which has lost much of its leadership. Sinwar, who was already the head of the movement in Gaza, took over the organization after Ismail Haniyeh, the head of the political bureau, died in July in Tehran in a bomb explosionfor which Israel was blamed. Other senior officials were killed in Beirut and Gaza, where Israeli airstrikes hit Hamas military commanders such as Marwan Issa and Mohammed Deif.
Hamas will present Sinwar as a martyr and try to frame his death in a way that inspires new volunteers. The fact that he appears to have died fighting on the front lines, with a gun in his hand, will contribute to this. But whatever the narrative, the removal of such a respected leader is unlikely to boost recruitment, and Hamas urgently needs new troops in Gaza, where it has suffered heavy casualties.
In search of successor
Command in Gaza is likely to pass to Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed, 49, who will likely continue the insurgent resistance strategy against Israel, focusing on maintaining some form of shadow administrative control in the Strip and exploiting outrage. for civilian victims to put pressure on Israel.
But more broadly, Hamas will be thrown into turmoil. Now he will have to find a new overall leader. Sinwar, despite all the authority he had accumulated over decades, was a controversial choice and, although his brother’s succession would send a powerful message, Mohammed Sinwar would have difficulty unifying and rallying the movement.
The major strategic decisions postponed by the appointment of Yahya Sinwar will have to be made now, under great pressure and with full knowledge that the Israeli security services are capable of tracking and assassinating even the highest officials.
In Israel, where many continue to blame Benjamin Netanyahu of security flaws which led to the death of 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and the kidnapping of another 250 in the October 7 attacks, Sinwar’s assassination will greatly strengthen the prime minister’s political position and rally his more right-wing support base. hard. Netanyahu’s popularity ratings were already improving after a series of tactical successes in Lebanon, including the assassination of the leader of the Shiite group Hezbollah, Hasan Nasrallah, and there were celebrations in Jerusalem this Thursday.
A boost to negotiations?
Sinwar’s death will no doubt be seen by some Israelis, including many in senior positions in the military, intelligence services and government, as a moment to declare victory in Gaza and end what is seen as a campaign exhausting, although – according to them – necessary. But it is unclear to what extent this could change things on the ground.
One possibility is that ceasefire negotiations between Hamas and Israel will get a boost now that one of the two people accused of blocking any deal is gone. But the attitude of any successor to Sinwar toward the talks may not be much different, and Netanyahu has always insisted that military pressure is what will bring back the hundreds of hostages still in Gaza, believed to be only half are still alive. The chances of Netanyahu now agreeing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including many who have killed Israelis, and make other painful concessions in exchange for the hostages must be slim.
The Israeli prime minister has described Sinwar’s assassination as “the beginning of the day after Hamas”, while ensuring that the war is not over. “Today we have settled accounts. Today evil has received a blow, but our task is not yet finished,” he said.
There is a possibility that the United States will now pressure Israel to declare an end to its offensive in Gaza, something that would be a great relief to Democratic Party campaign strategists in the face of to the presidential elections on November 5.
Washington has increased pressure on Israel in recent days to expand access to humanitarian aid for Gaza’s 2.3 million residents, most of them repeatedly displaced, who face a winter without food, shelter nor the necessary medications. The recent surge in airstrikes has brought the total death toll since October last year to more than 42,400.
But even if Israel decided to declare victory in Gaza with Sinwar’s death – something analysts have long predicted – that may not mean the dawn of the “day after.” Israeli authorities have made clear that their military control and operations will continue in Gaza as long as they deem necessary, and no one has yet presented a new political configuration in Gaza that would be acceptable to all parties.
Israel has already turned its attention to the battle against Hezbollah in Lebanon and, more broadly, against Iran across the region. Netanyahu has so far rejected any ceasefire in the north, in the probably justified belief that Israel has the upper hand and has yet to order retaliation for the barrage of 180 missiles launched at Israel by Iran earlier this month. This retaliation will undoubtedly come.
Sinwar’s assassination will further boost the confidence of the Israeli military, intelligence services and political representatives, who have already been greatly encouraged by his recent successes. Much of Israel’s strategic thinking is dominated by the need to restore what it sees as a deterrent necessary for its survival and to permanently weaken Iran.
The removal of Sinwar will be emotionally satisfying for many Israelis, politically useful for Netanyahu and his supporters, and a serious blow to Hamas, but it is unlikely to suddenly end the many open conflicts in the Middle East.
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