Ukrainian war|Ukraine has stepped up its long-range drone attacks on Russia. Cheap systems wreak havoc on Russia’s energy industry and force Russia to make difficult choices.
The summary is made by artificial intelligence and checked by a human.
Over the weekend, Ukraine carried out one of the war’s biggest drone attacks on Russia.
The reason behind the acceleration of the drone war is the ease and simplicity of technology development.
The attacks target Russia’s fossil economy, such as Gazprom’s oil refinery in Moscow.
The strikes alone do not affect the course of the war, but force Russia to make difficult choices.
Ukraine carried out extensive drone attacks on Russian soil over the weekend. Explosions were seen in at least Moscow and Tver, and Russia claimed to have shot down 158 drones.
Russia’s claims about the number of drones could not be verified, but it is clear that it was one of the biggest drone strikes of the war on Russian soil.
Drone warfare has evolved as the war has progressed. At the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s ability to carry out long-range strikes was practically entirely dependent on Soviet-era ballistic missiles. However, after Russia started using long-range drones, Ukraine also quickly started to develop its own drone industry.
Just a year ago most The drone strikes in Ukraine were carried out in the area between Ukraine and Moscow, about 500 kilometers away from Ukraine.
This year, the range of attacks has only increased. In January, Ukraine attacked the port of Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg, in the spring the Republic of Bashkortostan was attacked, and in August Russian anti-aircraft destroyed an airplane near the Olenivka airbase in Murmansk.
The distance from Ukraine to Olenivka is almost 1,800 kilometers.
British research professor at think tank RUSI Justin Bronkin according to the background of the acceleration of the drone war is the simplicity of the systems used and the ease of technology development.
“The basic components of drones are not particularly sophisticated, and the vast majority of them can be produced with simple equipment,” Bronk tells Helsingin Sanomat.
The software know-how needed to produce control and navigation systems for airplanes was already found in Ukraine before the war.
“This is one of the areas of the military industry that Ukraine has been able to grow in a way that is not easy for Russia to attack,” says Bronk.
He compares airplanes to more traditional military equipment. The production and maintenance of aircraft and tanks requires large and specialized factories, which are relatively easy for Russian intelligence to find.
Long-range airplanes, on the other hand, can be made in fairly small and inconspicuous workshops, and the production of their parts can be easily distributed. In this way, it is practically impossible for Russia to destroy drone production.
Airplanes the abilities it brings are not new. In the interview, Bronk refers to long-range drones with the term “propeller-driven missile” and states that there are practically no major differences between drones and cruise missiles.
“They’re easier to make, slower, cheaper, and significantly easier to shoot down, otherwise they’re practically the same.”
Airplanes also have a significantly smaller explosive load than traditional missiles.
“But there are a significant number of unprotected and highly flammable paints that don’t really need it,” says Bronk.
Ukraine has targeted a significant number of its attacks on Russia’s fossil economy. For example, the Gazprom oil refinery in Moscow lost as a result of the weekend’s attacks, half of its refining capacity.
Professor of Russian environmental policy at the University of Helsinki Veli-Pekka Tynkkynen according to Ukraine’s attacks, it is unlikely that the backbone of Russia’s fossil economy, i.e. the export of crude oil, will be significantly affected.
“It does not directly affect the big picture from which Russia gets its money. The goal is primarily to influence fuel distribution,” Tynkkynen says.
A large part of the attacks have targ
eted oil refineries, where crude oil is made into fuel.
“The strikes are trying to influence the fact that Russia is in a situation where it has to make choices about where it puts fuel. Will it be given to the front, will it be given to the Russian economy, i.e. citizens, or will it be given for sale,” says Tynkkynen.
“This is a factor that reminds the Russians that they are at war.”
Russian according to Tynkkynen, the infrastructure is vulnerable and attacks can also have long-term consequences. Repairing refineries is expensive, and many of them depend on Western technology. Due to the sanctions imposed by the West, rebuilding the processing capacity is challenging.
Also according to Justin Bronk, one of the purposes of the drone strikes is to hit targets that are difficult for Russia to replace.
“The attacks are causing ongoing financial damage in a sector in which many of Russia’s most influential people have invested significantly financially,” he says.
“This is a more direct way of causing pain to Russia than spending its troops on the front, because the Russian elite has shown that it doesn’t really care about losses.”
Cognoscenti still do not believe that drone strikes alone will greatly affect the course of the war.
“I don’t think it will force Russia into peace negotiations,” Tynkkynen says.
Justin Bronk agrees.
“I can’t remember a single case where the civilian population was broken by such attacks without massive losses on the battlefield,” he says.
However, according to Bronk, drone strikes are an important part of Ukraine’s strategy, as Russia is forced to react to them. This creates inefficiencies for Russia’s war machine and economy and may lead to greater impacts in the future.
Tynkkynen is on the same lines.
“It is clear that all this destruction that Ukraine is doing to Russia’s energy infrastructure increases the price of war,” says Tynkkynen.
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