12/08/2024 – 9:03
Analysts consulted by the Central Bank raised expectations for an increase in the IPCA at the end of this year again, but did not project an increase in the Selic rate after Central Bank authorities reiterated their commitment to converging inflation to the target, according to the most recent Focus survey released this Monday, the 12th.
According to the survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, economists now see the IPCA closing 2024 up 4.20%, compared to 4.12% the previous week, in an assessment that comes in the wake of the release of higher-than-expected numbers for the index in July.
On Friday, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) reported that consumer inflation accelerated in Brazil in July, rising 0.38%, the highest rate since February and after rising 0.21% the previous month. In a Reuters poll, economists had expected a 0.35% increase.
In the 12 months to July, the IPCA rose by 4.50%, the ceiling of the BC’s inflation target, which is centered at 3.00%.
For 2025, the IPCA is seen rising by 3.97%, a slight drop compared to the increase of 3.98% predicted a week ago.
Selic, GDP and dollar
The weekly survey with a hundred economists showed, on the other hand, that economists still see the Selic rate remaining at 10.50% until the end of this year, repeating the projection for the eighth consecutive week, even after tougher statements from members of the Central Bank in recent days.
In the minutes of the last monetary policy meeting of the Central Bank, the directors indicated that they will not hesitate to raise the interest rate in order to bring inflation closer to the center of the target if they deem it appropriate. In events last week, members of the agency were also unanimous in demonstrating the monetary authority’s commitment to the inflation target in the face of the risk of price acceleration.
For next year, the basic interest rate is still projected at 9.75%.
Analysts also reaffirmed their expectations for the price of the dollar, predicting that the US currency will close 2024 and 2025 at a value of 5.30 reais.
The projections for the country’s growth were also maintained, with GDP still expected to rise by 2.20% this year and grow by 1.92% next year.
#Market #raises #projection #inflation #rise #Focus