The bulk of the international community, including the European Union and a large number of countries in the Western Hemisphere, increased their pressure this week on the government of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela to allow a transparent vote count of last Sunday’s elections.
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This was after the opposition provided evidence of the alleged victory of Edmundo González Urrutia, added to the fact that independent organizations such as the Carter Center – invited by the regime as observers – decreed that Maduro’s victory, announced by the National Electoral Council (CNE), lacked credibility given the large number of irregularities that it managed to document.
However, Washington, which is set to be one of the key players in this new crisis facing the neighboring country, seems to have broken with this consensus that focuses on demanding a recount of votes and even other proposals that have been floated, such as repeating elections, in order to, as everything indicates, bet on a heavy hand.
While Washington joined common positions such as that of the G-7 (expressing doubts and calling for the immediate release of the results), The Biden administration has turned the page by clearly stating that, from its perspective, Gonzalez won the election, so recounts are irrelevant and the time has come to plan a peaceful transition of power.
Although the White House had said midweek that it was “losing patience” with the regime, on Thursday night Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the stakes with a lengthy statement in which, more or less, he acknowledged González’s victory.
“Given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and, more importantly, to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes in Venezuela’s July 28 presidential election,” Blinken said after indicating that The available records show an “insurmountable” victory and that the results are supported by exit polls and consultations with independent observers.
In fact, Blinken congratulated Gonzalez in his statement “on her successful campaign” and said that the time has come “for the Venezuelan parties to begin discussions on a peaceful and respectful transition in accordance with Venezuelan electoral law and the wishes of the Venezuelan people.”
The 4 reasons the United States declared Edmundo González the winner in Venezuela
According to various sources consulted by this newspaper in Washington, the hardening of the United States’ stance is due to several reasons.
“On the one hand, they are convinced that González won and on this occasion – unlike other times in the past – he has physical evidence of his victory and that Maduro and the CNE would be committing fraud. And, at the same time, they understand that Entering into a vote recount phase is giving oxygen to a regime that, you know, is cornered but is a master in the art of delay.” said a source close to American thinking but who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivity of the issue.
Additionally, experts say, the Biden administration sees in the current situation a “light at the end of the tunnel” that could lead to the long-awaited return of democracy in Venezuela.
“They really believe that Maduro is on the ropes,” says the source, hence the decision to push harder to provoke the outcome. Something that, strategically, suits the administration of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
Although the Venezuela issue is only a background to major issues in US foreign policy, such as the war in the Middle East and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it does have relevance and electoral impact in some states. Particularly, in Florida and the Latino vote, which will be important in the presidential and legislative elections next November.
This is in addition to the fact that Republicans, as was evident this week, accuse Biden of being “too liberal” and soft on the region’s autocrats. They also claim that the lifting of sanctions last October (he reimposed them in April of this year) was only a relief for the regime that did not produce the desired results.
Therefore, adopt A hard line at this point allows Democrats to neutralize that narrative or at least soften it.
They also know that Maduro’s continued presidency would lead to more migration to the United States, another weak point for the Democrats that is also being exploited for electoral purposes.
Additionally, and perhaps most importantly, if the effort leads to Maduro’s departure it would be seen as a resounding triumph for this administration.
If Maduro leaves, or a deal is reached leading to his departure and democracy returning to Venezuela after 25 years, Biden or Harris could sell this as a major victory.
As we recall, Biden, after years of maximum pressure against Venezuela that began during the Donald Trump administration, opted for a different approach last year by joining the negotiations between the regime and the opposition that concluded in the Barbados agreement: in exchange for a (temporary) lifting of sanctions and the release of Colombian Alex Saab, the pact established a roadmap that opened the door for the opposition primaries and the elections of July 28.
“Everyone sees it differently and adapts it to their political interests. But without that agreement, without that decision by the US, we would not be where we are today. If Maduro leaves, or an agreement is reached that leads to his departure and democracy returns to Venezuela after 25 years, Biden or Harris could sell this as a great victory,” said one of the sources.
And in an election as close as the one in the United States, something of this calibre could be relevant.
Of course, those are the “rosy accounts” that the Biden administration is projecting. In the opposite scenario, that is, one in which Maduro survives the storm and clings to power, his figure could become a real headache for the Democrats.
For now, what is clear, and this can be deduced from Blinken’s words, is that Washington – or at least this administration – is going to go all out in the short and medium term to achieve a transition of power in Venezuela.
SERGIO GOMEZ MASERI
Correspondent for EL TIEMPO
Washington
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