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Russia is running out of glider bombers. Putin has lost a fifth of his Su-34 fleet. But he wants to replace these losses in the Ukraine war. Has he succeeded?
Moscow – “No matter how many Su-34s they lose, the Russians are still winning,” writes Brandon Weichert. The author of the online magazine The National Interest reacts skeptically to the loss of the “backbone” of the Russian Air Force in the Ukraine war. He suspects that Vladimir Putin will replace the lost aircraft by any means necessary.
The Russian Air Force is said to have 138 aircraft of this type – this is what the World Air Forces Index of this year. The Ukrainian Taras Chmut expects 160 machines, as he X (formerly Twitter) writes. According to the military analyst, Russia has produced four machines this year. Last year, twelve. In 2020, 20 machines are expected to be put into service. “These are not conclusions, just numbers,” Chmut explained, according to the magazine Defense ExpressThe delivery of two machines in April and two in June was confirmed by the magazine Flight Review.
Losses of Su-34 fighter jets are high: 30 machines destroyed during the Ukraine war
30 machines were destroyed in the course of the Ukraine war, writes the statistics platform Oryx. In this respect, the invasion army has lost at least a fifth of its fleet of this aircraft type and has suffered quite high losses. “Russia is struggling with the wear and tear of its Su-34,” as Patrick Zwerger wrote in October. The author of the Flight Review had reported that the war in Ukraine was primarily aimed at the core of this type of aircraft. The Sukhoi Su-34 therefore played a central role in Vladimir Putin’s plans – the main role, as Zwerger had Russia’s then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu say.
Hardly any other type flies as many missions as the “duck-billed fighter-bomber,” says Zwerger. “We have to make an effort!” Russia’s former defense minister is said to have claimed, referring to the increase in production. According to Forbes The Su-34 is the most suitable carrier system for Russia’s most precise weapons – their glide bombs; for example, the KAB series: “The Su-34 were the obvious platforms for these new weapons. They became glide bombers – almost exclusively. The crews flew high and fast towards the front and dropped up to four KABs at the same time, up to 20 kilometers from their targets,” as Forbes writes.
The Su-34 are the carriers of the Russian glide bomb “wonder weapons” in Russia’s war of aggression
FAB-500 bombs are also said to have been used in Avdiivka, which suffered heavy losses, according to the magazine Armyrecognition reported: “This operation underlines the crucial role of the Su-34 in Russian military strategy, as it is capable of carrying out attacks from a safe distance beyond Ukrainian air defenses.” According to the National Interest The losses of the Su-34 are primarily the result of outdated Russian tactics: the Russians exposed their fighter aircraft to greater danger by ordering them to perform missions that they would otherwise have shied away from in their war of aggression: low to the ground and close to the front, as Brandon Weichert writes.
The machines, which have mutated into “glide bombers”, are now subject to a new tactic – and are benefiting from the USA’s veto on the use of missiles from Ukraine to attack certain airfields in the Russian heartland. At the Voronezh-Malshevo air base, Vladimir Putin is openly showing off the power of his fighter jets – he knows that Ukraine’s hands are tied and is parking the jets of the 7th Guards Bomber Regiment in the open air.
Su-34 fighter jets for the Ukraine war: Russian production shows signs of expansion
The magazine Forbes is based on claims made by the open source information service Frontelligence Insightaccording to which Voronezh-Malshevo is within range of the US-made ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) missiles. “Ukraine could disable the entire operational fleet stationed there if it were allowed to carry out such an attack,” speculates Frontelligence Insight about a lack of attack on Putin’s fighter jets and bombers at this base. Putin is under pressure to act.
Flight ReviewAuthor Patrick Zwerger sees “the signs pointing to expansion” at the Novosibirsk Chkalov aircraft plant, as he writes. More than 600 new employees have been hired this year alone, he quotes Yuri Sljusar, the general director of the state aircraft construction holding UAC, and head of the Su-34 aircraft shipyard. According to Sljusar, the number of specialists is to be increased to 1,000 by the end of 2024 – from production workers to engineers. In addition to expanding the workforce, the head of the shipyard promised the magazine that he would streamline the technical and logistical processes. He wants to find “additional reserves” “in order to increase production volumes,” said Sljusar.
Loss of fighter jets in the Ukraine war: Can Russia compensate for the setbacks?
The wear and tear of the machines will soon noticeably limit the capabilities of the Russian Air Force: This year, it is expected that it will suffer around 60 calculated aircraft losses due to overuse. “That corresponds to the loss of 26 new aircraft,” writes Michael Bohnert. The analyst from the Californian think tank RAND assumes that the losses will exceed the production figures for many aircraft types. Flight Review wants to know that a total of 76 new Su-34s are to be handed over to the operational squadrons by the end of 2027.
Forbes remains skeptical, as author David Axe writes: “With the number of Su-34 aircraft and their qualified crews shrinking and Russia struggling to build replacement jets and train replacement crews, the Russian Air Force may have no choice but to shift the glide-bomber mission to other aircraft: the Su-35 and Su-30 are the obvious candidates.”
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