F1 | Market: Red Bull sets limits and influences decisions…

The last few months have confirmed that no F1 marriage can be considered divorce-proof. Faced with twists such as the Hamilton-Ferrari agreement or the sudden risk of Christian Horner's sacking, every scenario seems possible. Hence the possible transfer of Max Verstappen to Mercedes, the arrival of Fernando Alonso in Red Bull (with perhaps Carlos Sainz alongside him) or even the return to the track of Sebastian Vettel.

There is a lot of talk, and a fact, the drivers' entourages and the team leaders are committed to being able to read the picture before their opponents, but this is ordinary practice, everyone talks to everyone in order to be able to put a more complete picture on the table possible of the situation. Many agreements are expected in the coming months, given that only seven riders have a contract for the 2025 season, but it is not certain that there will really be the earthquake predicted by some rumors.

At the moment, Red Bull is keeping the market at a standstill, and it couldn't be otherwise given the storm the team has gone through. Over the weekend in Melbourne, calm seems to have returned, media interest has subsided and from the outside the team appears calmer, but rumors still remain about Verstappen's future. It is a fact that Mercedes hopes for the possibility of having the world champion with them, Toto Wolff recently declared that the marriage with Verstappen “is only a matter of time, sooner or later it will happen”.

However, Wolff himself knows very well that today leaving Red Bull for Mercedes would be a very risky choice from a 2025 perspective and in any case not without unknowns also from a 2026 perspective. To convince a driver to abandon a winning team there must be obstacles deemed insurmountable, and here it will be Horner's task to convince Verstappen that, by putting everything on the scales, he has more to lose than to gain.

The support guaranteed to Horner by the majority shareholder of the Red Bull Group, Chalerm Yoovidhya, made it unnecessary for Verstappen's entourage to try to oust the current team principal if Max wants to continue racing for Red Bull Racing it will do so with Horner as team principal.

Now it only remains to see whether Verstappen will make it a matter of pride or whether he will give priority to his career and the potential possibility of reaching five world championships at the end of next year.

Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB20

Photo credit: Red Bull Content Pool

If it is unlikely that Verstappen will leave Red Bull, it is not even a given that Sergio Perez will be packing his bags at the end of the year. Checo's position is not the most stable, but the start of the season has worked in his favor, bringing the team two second places (behind Verstappen) in three races.

This is what Red Bull asks of him, and if the performance remains at these levels until the beginning of the summer (the deadline for the top team market) Perez will be confirmed. There have been no tensions between the two riders for more than a year, the 2023 objectives have all been achieved, and if the trend is confirmed this season too there will be no real reason to take the risk of a change. After the storm of recent months, today the tranquility in Red Bull is seen as a great added value.

However, there were contacts between Horner and representatives of other riders with the aim of not being caught unprepared in case of need. Alonso seems to prioritize a renewal with Aston Martin, but has obviously also explored Red Bull and Mercedes.

Fernando Alonso: he must decide his future, will it still be Aston Martin?

For Fernando the dream scenario would be an arrival in Milton Keynes without Verstappen, but with Max in the team even the opportunity to drive the best car on the grid loses much of its appeal. The possibility of seeing Alonso in Mercedes appears less likely today, the technical guarantees are no better than those of Aston Martin, an environment in which Fernando is well inserted. Furthermore, Alonso would hardly get a bigger salary from Wolff than he receives today.

Carlos Sainz, Ferrari

Photo by: Ferrari

Sainz's entourage is also very active on the market. The victory in Melbourne came at the ideal time to increase Carlos's prices on the market, and the possibilities seem to be different. For Sainz, a move to Red Bull, even alongside Verstappen, would be a very welcome option, but it involves a wait (i.e. the time that Red Bull has granted to Perez) which does not go well with the needs of Carlos, who intends to know his future in the shortest possible time.

The chances at Aston Martin are linked to a possible exit of Alonso, an option that today appears not impossible but unlikely, while there is silence on a potential mutual interest with Mercedes, which in fact was never revealed by Wolff. Audi is always at the window, but despite various certainties (role, salary, duration of the contract) there are many unknowns to take into account on the technical front.