In the aftermath of the massive protests that broke out throughout Chile in October 2019 and known as he social outbreak, politicians from across the ideological spectrum met to do what Chileans have always done: devise an institutional response to channel discontent. However, a four-year attempt to replace the Chilean Constitution of the 1980s has failed. In both 2022 and 2023, voters rejected draft Constitutions initially drafted by an assembly controlled by the left and conventional independents, and then a second version that bore the seal of the extreme right.
Aside from the constitutional reform process, Chileans are in a bad mood. Twice as many citizens disapprove of current President Gabriel Boric than approve of him. His supporters hoped that his election would usher in a period of fundamental socioeconomic change. But Boric and his allies are in the minority in Congress. Until now, a divided and fragmented legislature has hindered proposals for reforms in the tax, health and pension systems, key elements of Boric's agenda and for which he was elected.
Four years after the largest mobilizations since Chile's return to democracy in 1990, more than half of Chileans say that inequality has deepened since the outbreak, and more than two-thirds believe that the economy is worse than in 2019 The sense of stagnation is palpable, and experienced observers whom I have interviewed in Santiago lament that a country that has long been characterized by the ability to achieve consensus has until now seemed incapable of doing anything.
Difficulties in three areas
Boric and the Chilean left face difficulties in three areas that typically favor conservative or populist positions: security and violence, immigration and the economy. The next presidential election in Chile is in November 2025, and Boric cannot run for a second consecutive term. But his initial weakness in these three areas opens a wide rift that the right is already exploiting.
When it comes to crime, it is important to note that Chile has the lowest homicide rate in all of Latin America and the Caribbean — 6.7 per 100,000 inhabitants, according to national prosecutor Ángel Valencia. In contrast, homicide rates in Jamaica and Venezuela were 52.9 and 40.4 respectively in 2022. On the other hand, the occurrence of homicides in Chile has increased 60% above its level in 2016, when it was 4.2 per 100,000 population.
More importantly, non-fatal violent crime has steadily increased, particularly in poor neighborhoods. In its 2023 report, the non-governmental organization Paz Ciudadana found that 36.6% of Chilean households said that a family member had been a victim of robbery or attempted robbery. Always according to Paz Ciudadana, fear of crime has increased to 30.5%, the highest level in its 23 years of collecting statistics. Cadem, Chile's main polling company, reported in December 2023 that 60% of the population considers crime, public order and drug trafficking as the issues that should be a priority of the Government in 2024.
Today the issue of citizen security far exceeds health, pensions and education, precisely the problems that motivated the 2019 protests. Likewise, what draws attention is what Chileans would tolerate to combat crime: according to the research institute Center for Public Studies (CEP), 50% of the population believes that the only way to control crime is to suppress public and private freedoms; On the other hand, only 14% believe that these rights should be guaranteed, even though it makes the fight against crime difficult.
The link – both real and imagined – between crime and migration is another hot topic. The number of migrants in Chile has increased more than four times since 2012. The majority are Venezuelans, followed by Peruvians, Haitians and Colombians. The Catholic University of Chile announced in 2022 that 82% of the population thinks that the number of migrants in the country is excessive, and according to the CEP, 70% blame immigrants for the increase in crime levels, although The evidence in this regard is not conclusive.
There is no doubt that foreigners have a notable participation in the recent rise of organized crime activities in Chile. According to the Organized Crime and Corruption Reporting Project (OCCRP), made up of an international network of investigative journalists, the Venezuelan criminal gang known as the Aragua Train has “unleashed a wave of terror” in both Chile and in other South American countries by “bringing with them kidnappings, drug trafficking and contract killings.”
The aforementioned national prosecutor has pointed out foreign participation in the “significant increase” in crimes that are unusual in the country and, therefore, tend to have a strong impact on public opinion; among them, kidnappings for ransom in some areas of northern Chile, where it is reported that the Aragua Train controls extensive human trafficking networks. Other forms of extreme violence – for example, the discovery of dismembered bodies – have shocked Chilean society, which is not used to seeing such horrifying scenes.
The economy poses a third challenge. A significant economic recovery is projected in 2024, between 3-6%. But in 2023, according to the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), the Chilean economy was the only one, with the exception of Argentina, for which a decrease (0.3%) was projected. Unemployment, for its part, is almost 9%, a level higher than in the 10 years prior to the pandemic. And although inflation has decreased in recent months, it is still higher than in most countries on the subcontinent, except Argentina and hyperinflationary Venezuela.
Chile is making great efforts to become a major player in the global energy transition and has the world's largest reserves of lithium, an essential input for electric vehicles. The country has historically attracted considerable foreign investment due to its stable institutions and clear rules of the game. The Boric Government celebrated important progress in the implementation of the National Lithium Strategy when in December the state-owned Codelco and the company SQM signed an agreement to jointly exploit lithium from the Salar de Atacama; This could help overcome the doubts of many investors about the viability of public-private projects in that sector.
Future opportunity?
In his New Year's message, Boric called on politicians to “get out of the trenches” to achieve “important agreements” for the benefit of Chileans. Now that both the left and the right have been punished in the constitutional reform process, it remains to be seen if Chile can once again achieve consensus to respond to the main demands of citizens.
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