It took a new linguistic form to close the COP28 negotiations in Dubai. “Transitioning away from fossil fuels”: which we can translate as a transition away from fossil fuels or more simply “moving away”. It is weaker than the much-discussed “phase out” (gradual elimination), pushed by the countries most attentive to the climate issue, but also more courageous than the diluted and weak draft presented on Monday afternoon after pressure from oil-exporting countries, which wanted to blow up any agreement that is too stringent.
The final text of Global Stocktake (21 pages, complete here) was presented this morning at 6.30 Italian time (9.30 in Dubai) and approved by the assembly at 8.30 (11.30). A unanimous approval and celebrated by some delegations with lots of applause: the officials were exhausted after days of non-stop negotiations, extended by a day compared to the official closing date, scheduled for Tuesday morning. Al Jaber, the president of Co28 in Dubai and the Emirates minister of innovation, defined the agreement reached as “historic”. “It's a plan guided by science,” he said during the last plenary session. “It's an improved, balanced but, don't get me wrong, historic package to accelerate climate action.” He then added: “For the first time ever we have included the words 'fossil fuels' in our final agreement.”
«For the first time in 30 years, we may be approaching the beginning of the end of fossil fuels. We are taking a very, very significant step to limit warming to +1.5°C,” said European Commissioner for Climate Action Wopke Hoekstra. The text states that the international community “recognizes the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gases” and to this end “requests parties to contribute” with a list of climate actions, “according to their respective national circumstances”.
The first action is to “triple renewable energy capacity” and “double average energy efficiency” between now and 2030. Then “accelerate efforts to phase out coal without reduction measures”, accelerate the use of ” zero or low emission fuels” and “the transition away from fossil fuels in a fair, orderly and equitable manner”.
The English term “transition away” is ambiguous and subject to interpretation, experts acknowledge. The goal is 2050, but it is not clear whether by that date, which is fundamental in the calendar of the climate battle, countries will have to have completely abandoned their dependence on fossil energy. What the international community reiterates is that by the middle of the century it will have to balance the gases it emits into the atmosphere with those it retains (“net zero”, or “carbon neutrality”). The text represents a “step forward” but “does not provide the necessary balance to strengthen global action”, reacted in a statement by the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis), which in recent days had strongly opposed the drafts which did not foresee the “phase out” of fossils.
In addition to the mitigation of climate change, therefore the reduction of emissions, the text also mentions climate finance, albeit in a weak and imprecise manner; and adaptation, i.e. making cities and infrastructure safe to deal with the climate emergency already underway. Also on this point the document was judged rather weak.
2023 will be the warmest year on record. And 2024, with the multiplier role of climate change and the oscillations caused by El Niño, will probably be even worse. The Dubai agreement also lays the foundations for the next COP, in particular for COP30 which will be hosted in Brazil in 2025. The document introduces the “Road map to mission 1.5C”, to find tools to contain global warming within +1 .5°C (today already at +1.3°C) compared to the pre-industrial era.
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