After a long night of negotiations in Dubai, the representatives of the almost 200 countries meeting at the climate summit held in this city in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) approved an agreement this Wednesday morning that advocates undertake the transition to leave fossil fuels behind, in a direct reference to oil, gas and coal. These are mainly responsible for the climate crisis, but during decades of negotiations calls to abandon them have been left out of the climate negotiations texts.
The presidency of this summit, known as COP28, has been in the hands of the United Arab Emirates, a country in which around 30% of its income comes from oil and gas, something that made many doubt that this event would result. a direct call against fossil fuels. But this has been the case despite the open and tough opposition exerted by highly oil-dependent countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
With the central focus on fuels, the summit had become all or nothing. Either they were mentioned for the first time (it was already attempted at the 2021 Glasgow summit) or they were not done, which would end as a failure for many states, among which the European Union stands out for its activism on this point.
The doubt in the last hours of negotiation was what verb would accompany the reference to fuel. The most ambitious nations wanted a clear “phase out” of its use and production, compared to the reduction that appeared in the draft released by the COP28 presidency on Monday, which aroused much criticism from the environmentalist side.
Finally, the last agreement proposal launched this Wednesday in stoppage time (the summit should have ended yesterday) proposed making a transition – “transitioning away”, is the English expression used – to leave fossil fuels behind “in the energy systems , in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating the adoption of measures in this critical decade, in order to achieve net zero by 2050.
That has been the formula approved by the countries in a plenary session held this Wednesday morning.
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Climate plans
This call against fossil fuels is made in the context of the new climate plans that countries must present in 2025 to continue reducing their emissions. And in the energy part of the text, the most interesting part, all countries are also asked to “contribute” with other measures, such as the following global efforts to “triple the world's renewable energy capacity and double the global average annual rate.” of energy efficiency improvements by 2030″ and “accelerate efforts aimed at phasing out coal energy” that does not have emissions capture systems.
In addition, these measures include the progressive elimination of “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”, although without setting dates. And it is also committed to “substantially reducing emissions other than carbon dioxide globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030,” although also without setting a specific goal.
The text leaves several doors open to the fossil sector, which has felt threatened at this summit but which for decades has managed to ensure that these climate agreements talk about greenhouse gas emissions in general but not about their causes, fossil fuels. There is mention of using “zero- or low-carbon fuels well before or around mid-century.” Among the technologies that are requested to be accelerated, in addition to renewables and nuclear, they point to “reduction and elimination technologies, such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, particularly in sectors that are difficult to reduce, and the production of hydrogen with low carbon emissions.
Finally, the need to “accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport” is also mentioned, “with infrastructure and the rapid deployment of zero-emission and low-emission vehicles.”
This text represents a clear signal for what the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must include in their next climate plans, which must be presented in 2025 and which must serve to ensure that warming remains between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius with respect to to preindustrial levels. That is the level of security proposed by the Paris Agreement, signed in 2015. However, the current plans that the countries have and that cover until 2030 will lead to a warming, in the best of scenarios, of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees, as recognized in the text presented by the summit presidency. That is why they need to be toughened and these guidelines are given that put fossil fuels clearly in the spotlight for the first time.
The first reactions of some activists and analysts to the text have highlighted that the proposal “makes a clear call to the world to abandon fossil fuels and accelerate action in this decade,” said Melanie Robinson, from the World Resources Institute. In her view, it would “dramatically move the needle in the fight against climate change and overcome the immense pressure from oil and gas interests.”
WWF's Stephen Cornelius added: “This draft is a much-needed improvement on the last version, which rightly caused outrage.” Although he has warned that he does not “go so far as to ask for the total elimination of coal, oil and gas.” In any case, this environmentalist maintains that “it would represent a significant moment.” “For decades, UN climate talks have not addressed the fuels driving the climate crisis,” he recalled.
Finally, the agreement proposal launched this Wednesday in stoppage time (the summit should have ended yesterday) proposes making a transition – “transitioning away from”, is the English expression used – to leave fossil fuels behind “in the energy systems , in a fair, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating the adoption of measures in this critical decade, in order to achieve net zero by 2050.
Countries must now analyze this latest proposal. The intention of the presidency is to convene a plenary session during the morning for its approval. If this reference remains at the end or the transition towards the end of fossil fuels, it would be the first time that something like this has been achieved, since it points directly to oil, gas and coal.
Some oil countries have fought fiercely at this COP28 to avoid references to all fuels. While another important bloc, which included around a hundred nations, wanted clear language against those mainly responsible for the greenhouse emissions that warm the planet. The EU, which was actively in this last position, will evaluate the text this morning, but this Wednesday the faces were satisfied with this latest proposal.
This call against fossil fuels is made in the context of the new climate plans that countries must present in 2025 to continue reducing their emissions. And in the energy part of the text, the most interesting part, all countries are also asked to “contribute” with other measures, such as the following global efforts to “triple the world's renewable energy capacity and double the global average annual rate.” of energy efficiency improvements by 2030″ and “accelerate efforts aimed at phasing out coal energy” that does not have emissions capture systems.
In addition, these measures include the progressive elimination of “inefficient fossil fuel subsidies”, although without setting dates. And it is also committed to “substantially reducing emissions other than carbon dioxide globally, including in particular methane emissions by 2030,” although also without setting a specific goal.
The agreement leaves several doors open to the fossil sector, which has felt threatened at this summit but which for decades has managed to ensure that these climate agreements talk about greenhouse gas emissions in general but not about their causes, fossil fuels. There is mention of using “zero- or low-carbon fuels well before or around mid-century.” Among the technologies that are requested to be accelerated, in addition to renewables and nuclear, they point to “reduction and elimination technologies, such as carbon capture, utilization and storage, particularly in sectors that are difficult to reduce, and the production of hydrogen with low carbon emissions.
Finally, the need to “accelerate the reduction of emissions from road transport” is also mentioned, “with infrastructure and the rapid deployment of zero-emission and low-emission vehicles.”
If this text were to go ahead, it would represent a clear signal for what the signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must include in their next climate plans, which must be presented in 2025 and which must serve to ensure that warming remains between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels. That is the level of security proposed by the Paris Agreement. However, the current plans that the countries have and that cover until 2030 will lead to a warming, in the best of scenarios, of between 2.1 and 2.8 degrees, as recognized in the text presented by the presidency of the summit. That is why they need to be toughened and these guidelines are given that put fossil fuels clearly in the spotlight for the first time.
The first reactions of some activists and analysts to the text have highlighted that the proposal “makes a clear call to the world to abandon fossil fuels and accelerate action in this decade,” said Melanie Robinson, from the World Resources Institute. “This text would dramatically move the needle in the fight against climate change and overcome the immense pressure from oil and gas interests.”
WWF's Stephen Cornelius added: “This draft is a much-needed improvement on the last version, which rightly caused outrage. “The language on fossil fuels has improved a lot, but it still stops short of calling for the complete elimination of coal, oil and gas.” “If this text is agreed upon by the countries, it would represent a significant moment. For decades, UN climate talks have not addressed the fuels driving the climate crisis,” added this member of the environmental NGO WWF.
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