Where is the outlet for frustration? After three days of the party conference, the answer is: There was no outlet. Despite frustration, the SPD rallies behind its bosses – and the Chancellor.
Berlin – The SPD party conference couldn't have gone much better for Olaf Scholz and the party leadership. Despite disastrous poll numbers, the 600 delegates strengthened their leadership trio of chairmen Saskia Esken and Lars Klingbeil as well as Secretary General Kevin Kühnert with impressive results. The Chancellor is celebrated for a combative speech that hardly anyone would have believed him capable of. And the Jusos rebels remain tame.
The largest government party, the SPD, which has slipped in polls to become the third strongest force, well behind the CDU/CSU and AfD, with 14 to 17 percent, is rallying behind its chancellor. But he now has an even more difficult mission to succeed: closing the 17 billion hole in the budget for 2024 and financing large projects. The fate of the traffic light depends on the outcome of his negotiations with Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens).
51 minutes without a manuscript: Scholz can also do something different at the SPD party conference
There are two things that surprise many people at this party conference: the combative appearance of the Chancellor and the discipline of the delegates. “He’s just not a good speaker.” That’s one of the most common sentences about Scholz. He often clings to his text, rattling off what has already been said many times, without emotion. At the party conference he shows that there is another way. 51 minutes without manuscript. He caresses the party's soul by ruling out dismantling the welfare state. “We have to stick together and have a clear course.”
Almost five minutes of standing applause were thanked by the delegates. “It touched our hearts, honestly touched our hearts,” said party leader Esken enthusiastically about the speech. The SPD had already shown during the re-election of the party leadership that it did not want to react to lost state elections, poor poll numbers and the budget crisis with a riot, but instead wanted to pull itself together.
Juso boss wants to see Scholz on the offensive: “Not Robert and Christian’s couple therapist”
The new Juso boss Philipp Türmer is one of the few who approaches Scholz – but moderately. “Dear Olaf, if you want to play defense, you have to play attack,” he demands. “You are the head of the government, not Robert and Christian’s couples therapist,” he says, referring to Habeck and Lindner. When it comes to the controversial issue of migration, the Jusos fail with applications against the EU asylum reform, for the abolition of Frontex and for a stop to deportations to Iraq.
But there is also a third dimension of the party conference that takes place behind the scenes, in the numerous conversations on the sidelines. A main topic: What is the FDP doing? Is there a risk that Lindner will give up? The FDP leader demonstrated in 2017 that he can be very rigorous in the negotiations on a Jamaica coalition with the Union and the Greens.
There is no end in sight for the traffic light coalition: the survey results are too bad
The main argument against ending the traffic lights is the rather disastrous situation of all three partners. Together they would only get 33 to 38 percent in the surveys. In 2021 they were elected with a combined 52 percent of the vote. Who can want new elections now? Especially since the FDP would have to worry about its return to the Bundestag.
There is now a central question in the budget negotiations: Will the traffic light once again suspend the debt brake in order to take out additional loans, or not? The SPD definitely wants this and made a corresponding decision at the party conference, but it is not so harsh that it takes away the Chancellor's room for maneuver in negotiations. (Michael Fischer, Theresa Münch and Christian Johner)
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