The Bayern election will probably not offer a photo finish. However, a new survey still provides material for discussion for the CSU, Free Voters, Greens and FDP.
Munich – Five months before the Bavarian election, the race for the state chancellery seems already decided: Even a Sunday question published on Wednesday (May 3) sees the CSU around Prime Minister Markus Söder clearly in the lead – and on top of that almost an absolute majority for the ruling alliance from CSU and free voters.
However, the “17:30 SAT.1 Bayern Voter Check” showed a somewhat unexpected shift in the favor of voters in the lower ranks. At the same time, the FDP in the Free State seems to have to continue to worry about moving into the Munich Maximilianeum.
Bayern election survey: CSU and Aiwanger on course for re-election – FDP fears, Greens suffer
The survey by the Hamburg institute GMS estimates the CSU at 41 percent in the Sunday question. Your coalition partner, Hubert Aiwanger’s Free Voters, has 9 percent. The value of the Christian Social has remained unchanged compared to the previous Bavarian survey from December and January – the Free Voters lost one percentage point. Together, the coalition partners would hypothetically have 50 percent of the votes – in view of the fact that a few percentage points will be allotted to parties not entering the state parliament, that would be a comfortable majority.
The FDP could apparently also fail at the five percent hurdle. According to the Sat.1 survey, it ranks at 4 percent. The same applies to the left, it only gets 3 percent in the Sunday question. However, that is at least one percentage point more than at the beginning of the year. With an unchanged 10 percent in the Sunday question, the AfD does not seem to have to worry.
41% | – | 37.2% |
16% | -2% | 17.6% |
9% | -1% | 11.6% |
10% | – | 10.2% |
11% | +2% | 9.7% |
4% | – | 5.1% |
3% | +1% | 3.2% |
Source: Sat.1./GMS from May 3, 2023 / 2018 election result bayern.landtag.de
The current values should also cause the Greens less concern. You lose 2 percentage points compared to the previous survey. The Bavarian Greens around the figureheads Katharina Schulze and Ludwig Hartmann remained the second strongest force – but would have to live with losses compared to the 2018 election. At that time, the Greens received 17.6 percent. However, the CSU has already repeatedly rejected a coalition with the Öko-Party.
The SPD is a beneficiary in this Sunday question. According to the GMS, the Bavarian comrades, who were battered by election slip-ups, ranked at 11 percent. Measured against the rest of the republic, that’s not much – but in 2018 the SPD in Bavaria even missed the ten percent mark. There were also difficulties at the start of the Social Democrats’ election campaign in Bavaria, Secretary General Arif Tasdelen had to go.
Survey on the Bavarian election: Söder apparently hits the right nuclear note
It is unclear whether these smaller shifts also have something to do with the debate about nuclear power. However, the survey commissioned by Sat.1 nevertheless provided an insight into the Bavarian state of mind regarding the end of German nuclear power plants: 64 percent of those surveyed stated that they did not think the decision was the right one. 32 percent of those questioned were in favor of using nuclear power in the longer term, while 37 percent supported this at least temporarily.
So Söder could well have hit the right notes for the Bavarian electorate in April: The Prime Minister even called for nuclear power to be able to continue to be operated under his own state control – an expert arranged this in the conversation Merkur.de however, as “absolutely illusory”.
The CSU recently also loudly distanced itself from the traffic light coalition in Berlin on the subject of cannabis legalization. Despite the interest of the state capital Munich, for example, she does not want any model projects in the Free State. The CSU health expert Bernhard Seidenath warned at the request of Merkur.de: “We’re letting a demon out of the bottle here, which we can no longer control.” (fn)
According to its own information, the GMS institute interviewed 1005 eligible voters in Bavaria by telephone for the present representative survey between April 26 and May 2.
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