A party like the MC of Cartagena, whose leader has been questioned on numerous occasions for his macho and sexist comments directed at rival politicians, has its main electoral ground in the male public. The GAD3 survey for LA VERDAD predicts that three out of every four votes that José López’s candidacy will receive in the 28-M elections will be from men.
According to vote estimates, the localist party, which would be the second force with the most votes behind the PP and would get eight councilors, is the one that shows the lowest percentage of female support of those who attend these elections. On the other hand, the PP and the PSOE have women in Cartagena as the main voters, with 62% and 61%, respectively.
The weight of this vote is also notable in Podemos, approaching two thirds of the total (59%). The reverse occurs in Vox, where those two thirds are male (64%) and a third female.
Voter Profile of
the city of Cartagena (%)
Voter Profile of
the city of Cartagena (%)
Voter profile of the city of Cartagena (%)
By age groups, the highest percentage of the young vote is for Vox. 38% of those surveyed who said they would support him are between the ages of 18 and 29. This sector of the population is also disputed by socialists and popular with promises of aid for housing, training and leisure.
The PSOE has many voters who work in the public sector and there are no freelancers who bet on Podemos-IU
In addition, the party led by Diego Salinas in Cartagena has a lot of support among those between the ages of 45 and 64. However, he hardly fishes among those over 65. These would represent 7% of his voters when the total would be 22%.
young and retired
From the analysis of the telephone interviews carried out in the municipality of Cartagena, it can be deduced that the weight of the vote of veterans is prominent in the PP (36%), although Noelia Arroyo’s party would find the greatest support among voters aged 45 to 64 ( 40%). The PSOE would also receive a quarter of its votes from people aged 65 or over. But more than half would collect them among those who have already reached 30 years of age and those who have not yet retired. In the survey, the young vote represents 9% for the Socialists; for the PP, 7%, and for the MC, only 5%, despite its high social penetration in sports clubs.
In terms of studies, the highest percentage of respondents who said they had a university education preferred to vote for the PSOE, the MC and Vox (48, 47 and 46%, respectively). In the PP electorate, the percentage of graduates reaches 38% and in Podemos-IU, 37. Most of the voters of the left-wing coalition have secondary education (63%), the same as those of the PP and the Vox (both reach 44%). Those who have primary or lower studies opt equally for the PP and the PSOE (18%), for MC (16%) and for Vox (10%).
40% of the unemployed surveyed opted for the left-wing coalition and the students, for Vox
Due to employment status, it is striking that 40% of the declared voters of the PP are retirees and pensioners (which would achieve nine councillors, although it would have difficulties forming a government). That group represents one in three votes for the PSOE, just over a fifth of those that Podemos-IU would receive, a little less for the MC and only 8% in Vox. 41% of those who said they would cast the ballot for that conservative party are employed by others. Identical percentage as those who prefer the MC. The figures for private sector employees are very similar in the PP (22%), as well as in the PSOE and Podemos-IU (21%).
Among those who declared themselves voters of the PSOE and the MC, public employees stand out, around a quarter of their electorate. In the rest of the formations, the percentages of civil servants are lower, although in the case of Vox it reaches almost a fifth. This party is frequently associated with the military, very numerous in Cartagena, and members of the security forces and bodies.
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The pollsters found no self-employed willing to vote for Podemos. They prefer the PSOE (9%), as well as the PP and the MC (both with 7%). And only 3% would opt for Vox.
Podemos-IU becomes strong among the voters who have the worst job prospects. Four out of every ten votes that the left-wing coalition would receive within a week would come from the unemployed. 10% of this group would vote for the PP and Vox, 7% for the MC and 6% for the PSOE. The GAD3 study also detects that students prefer to vote for Vox (17%), while the vote of those who dedicate themselves to unpaid domestic work would be divided between the PSOE (4%) and the PP, Vox and MC, with the 3%.
Survey data sheet
-
Universe
residents of Cartagena with the right to vote. -
Ambit:
municipal. -
Dues
by sex, age and proportional geographical distribution. -
Information collection procedure
computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) to fixed and mobile phones (50%). -
Sample size
550 in Cartagena -
Sample error
± 5.0% (n=400); for a degree of confidence of 95.5% (two sigmas) and in the most unfavorable hypothesis of P=Q=0.5 in the assumption of simple random sampling. -
Interview duration
3-4 minutes approximately. -
Fieldwork dates
on April 26 and 27, as well as May 18, 2023.
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