With Ukraine on the defensive, President Zelensky is replacing its top general, and this is not without risks

The replacement of a commander of the armed forces in wartime is not unusual, but never without risks. This also applies to the changing of the guard that President Volodymyr Zelensky has been planning for months: after extensive speculation, he replaced national hero Valery Zaluzhny (50) on Thursday in favor of the little-loved army general Oleksandr Syrsky (58).

It was by no means an audience change, but the stream of praise at home and abroad for Zaluzhny and the way he led the Ukrainian armed forces in their fight for survival with the much larger neighboring country was remarkable. Almost two years after the massive Russian invasion, Ukraine is still holding out in the largest military confrontation on European soil since World War II, even though the outside world did not give a dime for its chances on February 24, 2022.

Zaluzhny had to rely on soldiers who were often hastily trained abroad and sent to the front. Moreover, in the midst of the war, his troops were supplied with new, unknown weapons and ammunition from a range of Western countries – from Leopard tanks and Patriot missiles to the Himars artillery system and Storm Shadow cruise missiles. Meanwhile, Zaluzhny was expected to storm Russian positions without air superiority. The promised F-16s have still not arrived.

Fighting with one arm behind your back

Zaluzhny has also been fighting with one arm behind his back for other reasons: the Russians have been bombarding Ukrainian cities from thousands of kilometers away for two years with hypersonic missiles that Zaluzhny can only dream of. The Western allies have them too, and probably better ones, but they don't supply them; furthermore, Kyiv would not be allowed to use them against targets in Russia. And that Ukraine, without a navy to speak of, actually managed to chase the Russian Black Sea Fleet from occupied Crimea is a minor miracle.

But it should not be surprising if a general, after two years of responsibility in such a war – with a few hours of sleep every 24 hours – is “physically, emotionally and intellectually exhausted”, wrote American General Mark Hertling on Thursday evening full of admiration for Zaluzhny, whose performance he described as “masterful”.

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received Zaluzhny Zelensky received the country's highest award, Hero of Ukraine. The president did this after Zaluzhny was urgently asked to make way for Oleksandr Syrsky, the army commander nicknamed 'the butcher' because of his ruthless approach within the army.

Failed summer offensive

Apart from the personal tensions between Zelensky and Zaluzhny, the president is said to have seen his top general as a political threat – after all, Zaluzhny is in Ukraine more popular than Zelensky. The president would also blame him for the failed summer offensive, in which Zaluzhny opted for a more conservative strategy after the first bloody setback amid the vast Russian minefields. He was also blamed – among other things from American intelligence circles – that his counter-offensive was not aimed at one place, but spread across the thousand kilometer long front line. The failed offensive had major consequences: for morale in Ukraine and support among allies; moreover, it was gratefully exploited by the propaganda machine in Moscow.

With the promotion of General Oleksandr Stanoslavovich Syrsky, Zelensky appoints a hardened soldier who has years of experience in the war against the Russians, since the occupation of Crimea and the first fighting in the Donbas in 2014. Syrsky, who was killed in 1965 was born east of Moscow, in the city of Vladimir, and knows the Russian army inside and out: he received his education in the 1980s at an elite military school in Moscow, in the last years of the Soviet Union.

Syrsky initially received much credit for the army's remarkable successes in the first year after the all-out invasion, such as the ignominious Russian retreat at Kyiv and a Ukrainian lightning offensive at Kharkiv that recaptured three thousand square kilometers of territory.

Little movement at the front

Those successes now seem like a long time ago. In the past year, the war was mainly characterized by the war of attrition along the long front lines, with thousands of dead and wounded on both sides, but hardly any territorial changes.

Among many Ukrainians, especially in the army itself, Syrsky is said to have a bad name. He owes this mainly to his unyielding attitude, such as during the months-long Russian siege of the front town of Bachmut. Due to the colossal Russian losses associated with the human attack waves on Bachmut, Syrsky decided to continue defending the devastated town, rather than withdraw tactically and spare precious Ukrainian lives. Because not only did Yevgeny Prigozhin's Wagner mercenary army lose tens of thousands of soldiers in the bloody battle of Bachmut, Syrsky also lost many of his men, often elite troops. Critics pointed out that Ukraine could have better deployed those soldiers in the major counter-offensive last summer.

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But according to Zelensky, “urgent changes” in the army leadership are necessary to win the war against Russia. Syrsky may be more willing to engage in major military confrontations with the Russians. In addition, he appears to be politically and personally closer to Zelensky than Zaluzhny, although the president denied in his evening speech on Thursday that his decision had a political motivation. “This is about the system of our army, about the management of the Ukrainian armed forces, and about attracting the experienced front commanders from this war.”

Ammunition shortages

The reshuffle of the army leadership comes at a precarious moment in the war. Ukrainian forces have been forced into defensive positions in most places along the front. Military analysts believe there is little chance that this will change drastically before 2025, especially given the rapidly increasing ammunition shortages on the Ukrainian side. In many places the Russians are already firing five times as many artillery shells as the Ukrainians.

The question remains whether – and when – the United States will provide new military support. Without new weapons and ammunition from Washington, it is unlikely that Syrsky will be successful against the Russians.

Insecurity also exists among a large part of Ukraine's male population. In the asymmetric war against Russia – Moscow has more men, weapons and ammunition – General Zaluzhny has already made it clear in recent months that the mobilization of half a million extra men is inevitable, but the resistance is great. Especially now that Zelensky has appointed an army leader who does not shy away from waging war in the 'Soviet way', it seems likely that even more men will try to evade conscription.

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