The crisis in West Africa has deepened in recent days. After the coup d’état in Niger, which overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum, the creation of the National Council for the Safeguarding of the Homeland, a military junta to govern the country, led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani, was announced.
Niger’s geopolitical importance and the sequence of coups d’état in the region led to a strong international reaction.
The coup was the subject of our previous column. To recapitulate, it is necessary to bear in mind three aspects in order to understand and comment on what happened. The first is the location.
It is one of the poorest countries in the world, the third to last in the world ranking of the Human Development Index. Poverty adds to the local political history, marked by military coups and authoritarian governments.
A potentially resigning general, then, decides to arrest the very president he was supposed to garrison, holding the government responsible for the poverty and corruption that plagues the country.
The second aspect is regional. The last few years have been marked by several overthrows in West Africa, most of them conducted by young military officers. In that sense, Niger’s sixty-year-old general is an exception.
These coups d’état are motivated as much by an anti-colonialist developmental perspective as by the erosion of local conflicts, whether against separatist groups, against banditry or Islamic jihadists.
Finally, the third aspect is the international clash between powers, especially Russia, with its growing presence in Africa, and France, whose empire dominated the region.
French intervention?
The main issue in this regard is the fact that the French economy needs Niger.
About 5% of all the uranium in the world comes from the country, and the element supplies French nuclear power plants, which supply about 75% of the electricity consumed in the country.
Since the beginning of the century, France has sought to diversify its supply, but around 30% of the uranium used by France still comes from Niger.
It is not surprising, then, that France did not accept the coup d’état, as did its European allies and the US.
It is important to point out that, under the justification of fighting jihadists, the Niger military has been trained and armed, in recent years, precisely by the US and France.
France and the European Union have already suspended economic cooperation with the country.
Niger received around 120 million euros in French aid in 2022, an amount that seems large but, considering the size of the country, is not enough for much. Besides, of course, most likely having been diverted into undue pockets.
The suspended European aid was expected to amount to around 500 million euros for a period of four years, between 2021 and 2024.
The Biden administration stated that “A strong U.S. economic and security partnership with Niger depends on the continuation of democratic governance and respect for the rule of law and human rights.”
All these cited countries refer to Bazoum as the legitimate president and demand the immediate resignation of the coup plotters and their “provisional government”. The main articulation, however, must be the regional one.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) did not recognize the coup and suspended the partnership with the country. Of the fifteen member countries of the community, four are currently suspended due to military coups.
While ECOWAS maintained the posture of negotiating with the military boards of Mali and Burkina Faso, its posture towards Niger was much more assertive.
Civil war
In practice, ECOWAS imposed an ultimatum on the Nigerian military, demanding the return of the ousted president and hinting at the use of a regional military force in intervention.
This language and this pressure would never have been used without the consent of countries like the USA and, possibly, France itself. The Niger junta also stated that France could intervene soon.
In this case, the justification for the intervention would be an alleged authorization from the “legitimate government” of Bazoum. The French government obviously denied this possibility.
On the other hand, the government of Niger also adopted measures and won declarations of support. The military junta has suspended the export of uranium and gold to France, although this is unlikely to affect French reserves in the short term.
The military boards of Mali and Burkina Faso have said that an intervention in Niger would be seen as a “declaration” of war on the two countries and that economic sanctions are “illegal, illegitimate and inhumane”.
Mainly, it is speculated that Algeria has already started moves to support Niger’s military, wanting to avoid a bigger crisis in a neighboring country. In addition, of course, to Russian support for the military coup.
If a negotiated solution to this crisis is not reached, there is a tangible risk of war.
It could be a war between the Nigerian military, supported by neighbors and Russia, against a regional intervention, supported by France and the US. It could also be a Nigerian civil war, with a military split, since many of them, as we mentioned, have links with the US and France.
Other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates and Turkey, are also observing events in Niger, Libya’s neighbor, which is currently fractional and with present influence from the aforementioned countries.
Poor and ignored Niger could then be a powder keg for a larger conflict, in yet another proxy war between the powers, this time putting Russia and France on a collision course.
#Nigers #uranium #put #powers #collision