Two realities, very contradictory in themselves, emerged last week in the American political universe. In one of them, President Joe Biden is in free fall. According to various surveys published by prestigious media and think tanks, The current president would lose the White House against any candidate the Republicans nominate next year.
But, in the other reality, a good part of the country continues to reject the agenda that the elephant party defends and it markedly favors the Democrats, who last Tuesday gave the Republicans a “beat” in five of the six states that held special elections.
Even more telling, the defeats occurred in very conservative areas of the country such as Kentucky and Ohio or states like Virginia, where Republicans were on the rise.
The clash between these two “parallel worlds” unleashed a whole series of speculations about the current situation in the country and the outcome of next year’s elections, when Not only the Oval Office will be at stake but also control of the US Congress.
Both parties, of course, sold the results to their liking.
(Also read: In the US, more and more people see violence as a way to ‘save’ the country)
Are both realities true?
For the Republicans, Biden’s weakness is a reflection of his mandate and proof that Americans are ready to abandon him.
Democrats, including the president, countered the narrative with their own message: “Voters are the ones who vote, not polls. Now we only have to win next year,” Biden said on his X (formerly Twitter) account.
(You may be interested in: Why did the pro-abortion movement score victories in Ohio, Virginia and Kentucky?)
But, according to Kyle Kondick, deputy director of the electoral program at the University of Virginia, although the picture is confusing, it is most likely that, at least today, both realities are true.
“This week’s surveys, although they seem a little biased to us and do not reflect what we are seeing in others, do point to a trend that has been going on for a while. Biden remains very unpopular and many would prefer that he step aside. But Trump, who leads the Republican race, is also one and the public, every time it has been called to the polls in the last two years, has expressed its discontent with the leadership of a party that they increasingly see as more extreme. Especially when sensitive issues like abortion are at stake,” Kondick says.
The analyst, in fact, points to how last year during the legislative elections, the Democrats surpassed all calculations despite the negative image of President Biden. In other words, the expert states that People voted against Trump and the extreme agenda and not in favor of the president.
(Also: ‘President Biden’s immigration policy has been disappointing’: Human Rights Watch)
The big question, however, is what voters will do when the choice is between one or the other.
“What we do know, Kondick maintains, is that Neither the polls, one year before the elections, nor the local elections are good gauges except to indicate that it will be a very competitive race that will be defined on the margins.
Despite this, the results of those elections – there is no doubt – must be causing alarm among Democrats.
Trump defeats Biden for the first time in the polls
In the most recent CNN poll, Trump defeats Biden 49 percent versus 45 percent. But, even more serious for the president’s interests, is that in a hypothetical confrontation, The current president would also lose against the two candidates who follow the former president: Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina (she would beat him 49 percent versus 43 percent), while Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida, would beat her with 48 percent versus Biden’s 46 percent.
However, the most relevant data from the sample is the one that points to the deterioration of the president’s popularity among the coalition that brought him to power in 2020.
Among voters under 35, 48 percent said they would support Trump, compared to 47 percent who would lean toward Biden.
(You can read: The challenges that Joe Biden faces to achieve re-election in the United States)
In the case of independents, key in US elections, 45 percent favor the former president, compared to 41 percent of his Democratic rival. And among African Americans and Latinos, the figure is 73 percent for Biden versus 23 percent for Trump, and 50 percent versus 46 percent, respectively.
All those margins They reflect significant drops in the president’s support in relation to exit polls from the last elections.
Although those who actually go to vote are not the same as the registered voters (which are measured in surveys) and one year after the elections there is time for opinions to change, the differences between then and now are marked: Biden triumphed among voters under 35 years of age by 21 points, he took the vote of independents by 13, Afro voters by 75 and Latino voters by 33.
(Also: Illegal immigration to the US: ‘sealing’ the border and other radical ideas from Republicans)
To that, of course, is added the fact of its popularity that according to the survey it is at 39 percent, one of the lowest figures in history and worse than what Trump had a year before losing the elections.
The CNN survey was joined by that of Sienna College and the New York Times where Biden appears to be losing to Trump, and by wide margins, in five of the six states he won in the last elections and that are vital if he wants to remain in the White House: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Biden would only be ahead in Wisconsin but only by two points, which is within the margin of error.
Why aren’t Americans happy with Biden?
Both surveys also reveal the reasons for discontent. Although economic indicators are improving, a large majority does not feel these benefits and continues to suffer from the high cost of living that inflation has caused.
Likewise, the conflict between Israel and Gaza and the war between Russia and Ukraine – although they are not of his authorship – have questioned his leadership capacity in the international arena.
Especially among younger people, who tend to be liberal and do not support the unconditional support that has been offered to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
But above all, and this is seen in both samples, an immense majority (75 percent), believes that Biden is too old for another four years in the White House.
(Keep reading: How serious is the impeachment investigation into Joe Biden?)
According to Kondick, the big difference between the x-ray shown by the polls today and the one that emerged from the 2020 and perhaps 2022 elections is that it is not a referendum on Trump and his chaotic mandate or influence on the direction of the party but on Biden’s management in these three years.
David Chalian, political director of CNN who analyzed the results of the polls, put it in these terms: “The country is angry with Biden. There is no other way to interpret it.”
At the same time, this and other analysts point out that That reality could change in the year before the elections. Not only because the factors on the ground change – the economic situation improves, the crisis in the Middle East calms down, etc. – but because once Trump’s election as the candidate of the Republican Party is confirmed, attention will also turn to what which implies the return to power of an extremely controversial person who faces criminal proceedings in four courts in the country.
As happened in the 2022 legislative elections, when the Democrats’ strategy was to highlight the extremes of “Trumpism” and their positions on abortion, climate change and other issues, they could once again mobilize the base, as was seen in the elections. this Tuesday.
In any case, for both parties, the events of last week were a wake-up call.
SERGIO GÓMEZ MASERI
EL TIEMPO correspondent
Washington
In X: @sergom68
#Biden #plummeting #polls #year #presidential #election