Although it seems like a thing of the past, territorial disputes continue on the agenda of several countries. Without going too far, The conflict between neighbors Venezuela and Guyana over the territory of Essequibo is at a point of maximum tension that includes a military threat.
(Also: Venezuela: referendum campaign for territorial dispute with Guyana closes with concert)
There are 159,000 kilometers of land and rivers that both nations have been fighting since 1840, despite the fact that historical records mostly include that space in Venezuela, especially under the principle of uti possidetis iuris, “as you possess according to law, so you will possess.” , that It adheres to the fact that the Venezuelan limits will be the same as before declaring its independence and they include the disputed space with Guyana..
(You can read: ICJ asks Venezuela to ‘refrain’ from complicating the dispute with Guyana with a referendum)
Just this Sunday, the Government of Nicolás Maduro is holding a five-question referendum in which the population is asked for its opinion on rejecting the Paris Award of 1899, supporting the Geneva Agreement of 1966, and not recognizing the jurisdiction of the Court. International Court of Justice on the dispute, opposing the oil licenses granted by Guyana to transnational companies in the open sea and – the most controversial – the creation of the state of Guayana Esequiba.
It is most likely that this Sunday’s vote will be large, since, despite the political differences, it is one of the few issues that brings together both the ruling party and the opposition.
(Also read: US prepared to reinstate sanctions on Venezuela if there is no ‘further progress’)
In 2018, Guyana, a former British colony, filed a lawsuit against Caracas at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to resolve the territorial dispute between both States over the Essequibo region, and last April, The ICJ declared itself competent to rule on the case, which was a blow to Caracas, since it had tried to have it declared “inadmissible.” .
The ICJ’s response came last Friday when it issued provisional measures that urge Venezuela to refrain from taking actions that modify the situation in Essequibo until the ICJ announces a final decision on the case. In addition, he asked both countries to refrain from any action that could aggravate the controversy or make its resolution difficult.
Although the Maduro government half-celebrated the decision, the concern is what will happen after the referendum is held, given that there is fear of a military escalation on both fronts.
(Also: Venezuelan opposition hopes that Maduro meets the US deadline to remove disqualifications)
For Julio Borges, a former Venezuelan deputy who has followed up on this issue, it is necessary to remember that “Chávez was in Guyana and gave him an open door to explore the entire territory,” so showing an active defense position, like, now is taking advantage of the situation..
In conversation with this newspaper, Borges stated: “It has been discovered that this territory is an enormous pool of gas, oil and minerals that can completely change the region.”
In that sense, the former deputy insisted that at least Colombia and Bcortrasil – the latter has already deployed troops on its border – should not be oblivious to the latent conflict, and even less so when the parties are willing to do anything. The Guyanese president even visited space, raised a flag and assured that “he would not give up a millimeter of land”.
(Read also: Venezuela celebrates that the ICJ did not order the suspension of the referendum disputed with Guyana)
For political scientist and regional analyst Daniel Arias, the complicit silence of Gustavo Petro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is “striking,” who in principle would align themselves with Venezuela for ideological reasons.
It has been discovered that this territory is a huge pool of gas, oil and minerals that can completely change the region.
The president of Brazil wrote in his X account that “when a country decides to go to war, it is decreeing the bankruptcy of dialogue” and he believed negotiation was sensible. He called to think about the conversations before killing “women, children and men,” but he did not mention any of his counterparts.
Arias believes that the position of thinking that the dispute is one of a few actors does not look at the complete scenario, since the Caribbean Community (Caricom), an ally of Guyana, is also involved in the game despite the fact that they received millions of dollars from Venezuela to through the famous PetroCaribe mechanism.
(Also: Five months since the reopening of the Colombian Consulate in Caracas: this is how the operation is going)
On the other hand, Georgetown also has the support of the United Kingdom and the United States itself. In another sphere, it is likely that Russia and China will also enter the board, the former to appease and the latter, trying to avoid conflicts to safeguard their investments in the area, since not only Exxon Mobil is exploring oil, but also companies from Beijing..
“Venezuela understands the international significance of what is at stake. Hence, a series of high-impact measures can be foreseen that the Government can take, including aggressive naval patrolling of the maritime zone, completely cutting off oil exploration and extraction activities,” Arias emphasizes.
Given this possibility, Guyana could force other countries that support it to intervene, “even countries on the continent interested in a military conflict that would give them the opportunity to achieve a change of government in Venezuela,” Arias explains to this newspaper.
For career ambassador Eloy Torres, member of the Venezuelan Council of International Relations, Losing the Essequibo would mean for Venezuela the dispossession of a seventh of the territory, four percent of the world’s biodiversity, 35 billion dollars in gold reserves, in addition to billions in diamonds and minerals. Also light oil which, according to estimates by the US Geological Survey, may amount to 13.5 billion barrels of oil.
(You can read: Brazil reinforces military presence on the border due to a dispute between Venezuela and Guyana)
And while for Venezuela winning Essequibo would mean a possibility of relief from its crisis, Guyana is risking economic rise after 57 years of independence. This being the case, this Sunday’s referendum will set the tone for what happens between now and next April when the final pronouncement of the ICJ is expected to occur.
ANA MARÍA RODRÍGUEZ BRAZÓN
TIME CORRESPONDENT
CARACAS
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