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China’s National Bureau of Statistics recorded a decline of 850,000 people in 2022, the first decline in population in 61 years. The one-child policy applied for decades is one of the reasons for the low birth rate, but not the only one.
The Asian giant marks a historic decline. China, the world’s most populous country, ended 2022 with fewer inhabitants than the previous year for the first time in six decades, according to the country’s National Statistics Office (ONE).
It is an unusual turn that is expected to usher in a long period of decline, with profound economic and social implications for a country accustomed to relying on its vast workforce.
The ONE figures determine that China’s population in 2022 was 1,411.75 million inhabitants, 850,000 less than in the previous year. The last time the country’s population fell was in 1961, when Mao Zedong pushed through an industrialization policy known as the “Great Leap Forward” that led to intense famines.
Experts and demographers had already predicted the news, especially when reviewing the birth figures in China. The birth rate per thousand inhabitants went from 7.52 to 6.77 in 2022. In absolute figures, this means that in 2021 10.62 million people were born, while in 2022 there were 9.56 babies.
The ONE also registers an increase in deaths, from 10.14 million to 10.41 millionalthough it does not include the thousands of deaths at the end of 2022 after the lifting of the ‘Zero Covid’ policy – some 60,000 deaths – since the figures were collected until November 1.
The one-child policy takes its toll
The one-child policy that governed between 1980 and 2015 is one of the reasons that explain the aging of the population. More than 30 years ago, the fertility rate of the Asian giant fell below the replacement level, that is, for the new population to replace the old generations.
In addition, this policy and gender discrimination also caused families to prefer having sons. Today, there are 722 million men and 690 women, an especially deep imbalance in rural areas that makes it difficult to create new families.
Another of the current difficulties is the extremely high cost of having children, especially in the area of education, which makes many decide to have only one child or even none at all. That becomes even more pronounced for women thinking of becoming mothers, and to whom most of the childcare jobs fall: many decide to prioritize their careers or their own financial solvency.
“(China’s) population is likely to trend downward over the next few years. This is very important, with implications for growth potential and domestic demand,” Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, was quoted as saying. by ‘South China Morning Post’.
“China cannot rely on demographic dividends as the structural engine for its economic growth. From here on out, demography will be a tailwind. Economic growth will have to rely more on productivity growth, driven by government policies,” Zhang added. .
However, Kang Yi, head of the ONE, assured that the prospects are not so worrying, since “in general, the supply of labor still exceeds the demand.”
The Government has tried to implement policies that favor fertility: for example, since 2021, it is allowed to have up to three children. Tax benefits, better maternity leave and housing subsidies were also promoted. However, for now they have not yet managed to begin to reverse the dynamics.
Will India be the most populous country?
China’s population decline could open the door for India to become the world’s most populous country. United Nations demographic studies predicted that the country would have a population of 1.412 million people in 2022, something that would already exceed the Chinese population count.
However, India only registers its census every ten years, so there is still no data to officially corroborate this ‘sorpasso’ to China. Initially, the recount was expected to take place in 2021, but it was postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Currently, it is considered that the Indian population is 1,380 million people and its birth rate is 17.44%, almost ten percentage points more than in China, a situation that allows us to foresee that, even if this year is not the one that saw more Indians than Chinese in the world, it will be possible to observe in the immediate future.
With Reuters and EFE
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