Formula 1 begins 2024 with the same script with which it closed 2023. Max Verstappen dominates, faster on every compound, walking for a good part of the race and, above all, able in the first stint with full tanks to make the race last soft tire 4 laps more than the competition, despite going almost 1 second per lap faster. After a season closed with 21 races won out of 22 by the Rb19, the initial impact of the new car from the Milton Keynes team for 2024 does not seem that different. However, it is worth making an attempt at objective analysis, even using a bit of recent history, to look at things from another perspective, at least for now.
Sakhir is not Barcelona
The fact that Formula 1's journey begins on the Emirati track and that it also carries out pre-season tests there places an important filter on the chronometric feedback returned from the race. The morphology of the track particularly highlights some characteristics of the cars but does not highlight many fundamentals, which is why the findings, although worthy of attention, must not necessarily be taken as definitive, but will have to be mediated by those that will arrive in the next race weekends . Sakhir is a highly “rear limited” track, with very high degradation due mainly to the long phases of violent traction which put the rear under enormous stress, as well as an abrasive and very bumpy asphalt. If we take some examples from recent history, including those of Ferrari, we note how cars with obvious aerodynamic shortcomings such as the SF90 in 2019 and the SF23 in 2023 still managed to “save themselves”, with the SF90 which, before Leclerc's engine problem , was even dominating the race ahead of a much better Mercedes overall. The chassis and therefore aerodynamic goodness needs to be tested even on tracks where the balance shifts towards the front of the single-seater and where the ability to create aerodynamic downforce has a greater impact on performance and the final result. It is no coincidence that the real race that revealed Red Bull's potential for 2022 was the next one on the programme, in Jeddah, where by adding what was seen in Bahrain to what was found on Saudi roads, the lack of gaps in the Rb19 emerged, which dominated the competition in every sector.
The key difference with last year
Now, if caution is therefore a must, it is equally clear that what we saw in the race at Sakhir cannot give us hope for immediate miracles, especially in Formula 1 where performance comes from long research and development processes and not from miracles of a playmaker who invents a goal when no one expects it. On the other hand, the line drawn by Waché is clear: RedBull wants to spend 2025 focused on the 2026 car based on the new regulations, and there was a need for a new platform that would guarantee development margins large enough to keep the competition at a distance in the two-year period 24-25. From here the revolutionary RB20 was born which shows an estimable development advantage in the opinion of the writer in about 8 months for the Austrian team over all the competition. Getting to Red Bull will therefore be an undertaking for everyone, but there is an important difference between what we saw on the track in these first hours of 2024 compared to what happened in the past season: the competition seems to have significantly improved in quality. Of course, for now the stopwatch doesn't give much credence to this thesis, because if we look at the first two stints of the race, Verstappen had an advantage of around 6-8 tenths per lap over everyone else, before starting to walk around the track, but the feedback from the opponents were not the disoriented ones of 2023, when Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren, the main candidates to compete for something important with Red Bull, brought single-seaters onto the track that were literally to be thrown away shortly thereafter. The quality put on the track by the competition appeared to be substantial this time, especially with the SF24, largely the second force in Bahrain, which appeared throughout the weekend equipped with good fundamentals, first of all the ability to develop aerodynamic load. Sainz's race pace, fifth on the first lap and on the podium at the end, really similar to that of Perez on a “tyre-eating” track, is a good indication of how the red has made enormous progress during the winter and also the reactions of the pilots tell it. Leclerc's anger at having had to lead a race driving a car that pointed in a different direction at every braking point and Sainz's exalted spirit who had a lot of fun in the race, tell of a car that the drivers still like, who don't show the signs of resignation seen immediately in past seasons. Where the SF24 seems lacking for now (Leclerc's brakes aside) seems to be the mechanical setting in the slow corners, where the drivers still struggle a lot to make the car rotate easily and where they left most of the time to the Red Bull and then recovered it in the fast corners thanks to the load and stability. Even the rear still appears a little too light, as the axle has become weak, but this is in general a decidedly simpler characteristic to manage and correct, compared to the enormous and disastrous aerodynamic understeer that characterized the SF23.
Mercedes appeared “diva”, not entirely convincing. McLaren not far from expectations
Behind the Ferrari we saw a disappointing Mercedes, which appeared on the same level as a McLaren which started with low expectations for the first race due to the characteristics of the track. Adding up the amount of data collected over the weekend, the impression is that the W15 is still a “diva” for now, with a narrow operating window that is difficult to hit. The exploitative performances during the various sessions, including Russell's super lap in Q3, demonstrate how the car expresses great potential when it finds the right window, but that there is a greater dependence on ground clearance than the competition (see the amount of sparks ) and that this is a factor that makes it more complicated to unlock the real potential of the single-seater. The fact that drivers and technicians cited the loss of tire temperature due to having to raise the pace due to engine cooling problems seems to somewhat confirm this hypothesis, with the single-seater very easily leaving the ideal operating range. Also noteworthy is the incorrect choice of cooling of the Power Unit, considering that from Mercedes itself we had received rumors of great confidence in the potential of the propulsion unit once the cooling was reset without the zero-pod concept: it is evident that a Brackley and Brixworth are still trying to optimize this new setup. McLaren, on the other hand, appears from the data to be an evolution of last year but based on similar concepts: high level of load and excellent potential in fast corners, but still not entirely complete on all fronts, such as mechanics and balance. Behind them the data shows Aston Martin as fifth force in the race but with a significant gap from the first four teams and results which for now do not suggest a rejoining the leading group in the short term (and with some exploits by Alonso seen during the weekend probably the result of the track itself as written at the beginning).
In Jeddah to evaluate, waiting for Suzuka to understand
In conclusion, this year too the Jeddah race can give us the first truthful confirmation of the season, where we will be able to put together the data from tracks with very different characteristics and we will be able to understand whether the prospects for 2024 are completely aligned with those of 2023, with a total and complete monologue from Verstappen and his Red Bull, or whether there will at least be the hope of seeing races with less obvious outcomes. All while waiting for Suzuka, the fourth race of the season, the main Formula 1 track where the teams will probably bring the first serious update packages and where we will have feedback on the values on the track at that definitive point.
#Bahrain #close #season
