Syria is a complex network of rebel forces and the Levant Liberation Organization (HTS) is one of the most powerful. Until now, the Islamist organization was cornered in Idlib, which for years has been the last rebel stronghold. All that changed on November 27 when a coalition led by HTS launched an offensive against the country’s second city, Aleppo. In less than two weeks, the forces under the command of Abu Mohammad Al Jolani have easily taken several cities until reaching the capital, Damascus.
Al Qaeda heirs
Abu Mohammad al Jolani fought in Iraq against US troops after the 2003 invasion in the ranks of Al Qaeda. After the start of the war in Syria, Al Jolani moved to the country and was one of the founders of the Al Qaeda branch in Syria, known as Al Nusra, and received the support of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, leader of the Islamic State.
It was in July 2016 when Al Jolani dissolved Al Nusra and founded HTS in a coalition with four other Salafist jihadist groups in the region. The organization claims that it has broken all its ties with Al Qaeda, but in UN reports have reflected communications between both groups.
HTS is considered a terrorist organization by the UN Security Council and by countries such as the US, Turkey, the United Kingdom and the European Union.
Rebel rule and rule
Since its founding, HTS forces have managed to establish their dominance over other rebel forces, becoming the main Islamist actor in the country. In Idlib the group leads a semi-technocratic “Salvation Government” that even has permanent contact with the UN, according to analyst Charles Lister, who even adds that its response to COVID-19 was faster than that of Damascus.
“Militarily, HTS has invested enormously in 2020 to strengthen its combat capabilities,” explains Lister on the X social network, thus creating night units, special forces and even a drone unit. “It has changed the game and created a force that the Assad regime has had serious difficulty defending itself with.”
“But just as important as military capabilities is their work on the ground to facilitate their advancement, especially after years of contact with tribes, minorities and other social organizations,” explains Lister. “After more than four years of community engagement with groups traditionally hostile to HTS, the group has developed a flair for diplomacy. In recent days, he has put this experience at the service of multiple fronts, with significant effects,” adds the analyst. In many cases he has negotiated peaceful conquests, safe departures from his enemies and even defections from the regime.
Moderation attempts
As the group has consolidated its military and government power in Syria, Al Jolani has tried to present a moderate image away from his past in Al Qaeda and has even given interviews to Western media during his recent offensive.
“Everyone in life goes through different experiences. These experiences increase the consciousness of each one. Someone who is 20 years old has a different personality than someone who is 30 or 40 years old,” said Al Jolani about his Al Qaeda past during a recent interview with CNN. “Sometimes it is essential to adjust to reality. “Someone who advocates certain ideas and principles without flexibility cannot lead societies effectively or navigate complex conflicts like the one in Syria.”
“HTS is one of the factions in the region like all the others. Now we are talking about a larger project; We are talking about rebuilding Syria and HTS is just a detail of this dialogue and could dissolve at any time. “It is not an end in itself, but a means to confront this regime.”
In their recent statements, the group and its commander have promised to protect minorities, such as Christians and Kurds. “Do not underestimate the importance of HTS’s recent statements and rhetoric towards Christians, Alawites, Kurds, etc. They cannot be mere public relations since they set an irreversible precedent. Jolani has spent years purging those who criticized such measures. Now he is on firmer ground,” says Lister.
Kurdish forces also advance
It is enough to look at the map to understand that the coalition led by the Islamists of HTS is not the only relevant rebel actor. The Syrian Democratic Forces, painted purple on the map, are a Kurdish coalition that dominates much of the northeast of the country.
The Syrian Democratic Forces, supported by the United States in their fight against the Islamic State, have also taken advantage of these days to launch their own offensive and take the city of Deir ez-Zor.
In turn, these forces are enemies of Türkiye, which has repeatedly accused Washington of supporting Kurdish “terrorism” near its border. There are currently around 900 US troops in northern Syria and the US has said it will maintain its presence.
Pro-Turkish rebels
Painted yellow on the map are the areas of another relevant rebel actor, the Syrian National Army (formerly the Free Syrian Army), directly supported by Turkey as a counterweight to the Kurdish forces. This pro-Turkish group has also participated in the offensive, advancing and taking new territory.
“In the past, HTS had difficulty building true trust with the rest of Syria’s armed opposition, but that has changed in recent years. The impressively close coordination with long-standing Free Syrian Army-branded groups this week is testament to that,” says Lister.
These days of offensive there have also been armed clashes between the Kurdish units of the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Syrian National Army supported by Turkey, who are fighting their own war outside the Bashar al Assad regime.
“The Syrian National Army is not a centralized and cohesive organization like HTS and includes many different subgroups that have often fought against each other,” analyst Broderick McDonald told Middle East Eye this week. “What unites them is their common interest against the Assad regime and preventing HTS from taking all the liberated territory,” he added.
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