From the dream of snowy Christmas? At least the chances of a party in white are much worse than they were years ago. Climate change is to blame.
Offenbach – Climate change is reducing the prospect of a White Christmas in many regions of Germany.
A comparison of the reference periods 1961 to 1990 and 1991 to 2020 shows, according to the German Weather Service (DWD), that the chances of this – with a blanket of snow on all three days (December 24th to 26th) – on average in Germany by 13 percent and regionally even decreased by up to 44 percent.
According to the information, the south of Germany is particularly affected, where just a few decades ago there was snow almost every second year at Christmas. “That’s not surprising. Climate change with rising temperatures is driving the romantic White Christmas out of Germany step by step, ”said DWD spokesman Uwe Kirsche on the data.
Chances different in different cities
For seven cities in Germany, the DWD currently has calculated the decline in the likelihood of White Christmas: In Berlin, the statistical chance then fell by just ten percent, as in Hamburg. But while the probability only decreased by 3.8 degrees in Leipzig, it was 19.5 percent in Munich, 12.2 percent in Freiburg and 11.8 percent in Frankfurt / Main.
That means: Statistically speaking, most people in Germany can only look forward to snow on the three public holidays every ten years. “Although the trend is clear, the variability of the climate gives reason to hope for an exception every year,” said Kirsche. However, the DWD’s meteorologists could estimate ten days before Christmas at the earliest whether snow would fall and stay there.
It is similar in neighboring Alpine countries: Studies by the DWD, the Federal Office for Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss and the Austrian Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG) show that the winters in Germany, Austria and Switzerland became warmer in the long term at all altitudes. In the future, this trend is likely to continue, it said.
The higher, the more likely
At low altitudes, the snow is much less due to global warming. Nevertheless: At higher altitudes above about 1500 to 2000 meters are reportedly expected in the coming decades, sufficient natural snow for winter sports and mostly White Christmas.
Nevertheless registered the mildesten winter, the measurement history in recent years in many European countries. In Germany, for example, six of the ten warmest winters in the 21st century were recorded. In Switzerland, the winter was 2019/20 in interstate means the warmest since the introduction of the official monitoring network in 1864. In Austria, the number of days with snow cover, for example, in Vienna, Innsbruck and Graz in the last 90 years by about 30 Percent decreased.
“Climate change in the Alps does not stop at political boundaries,” said Mischa Croci-Maspoli, head derAbteilung climate the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss. Tobias Fuchs, DWD Board for Climate and Environment, expected from the intensive cooperation between the meteorological services of Germany, Austria and Switzerland, the development of sustainable and holistic strategies to improve the areas of resistance and adaptability. dpa
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