Weeks after the US president warned China about Taiwan, Beijing issued its most scathing rebuttal yet, saying it would “resolutely crush any attempt” at Taiwan independence.
On Sunday, Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Wei Fenghe accused the United States of supporting the island’s independence, saying it was “violating its promise on Taiwan” and “interfering” in China’s affairs.
“Let me make this clear: If anyone dares to separate Taiwan from China, we will not hesitate to fight. We will fight at all costs and we will fight to the end. This is the only option for China,” he told the Shangri-La Dialogue, a Asian security summit held in Singapore.
These comments came after US President Joe Biden recently said that China was “flirting with danger” by flying its fighter jets near Taiwan. In addition, he promised to militarily protect the island if it was attacked.
Taiwan, which considers itself a sovereign nation, has long been claimed by China. And it counts on the United States as its greatest ally. Washington has a law that requires you to help the island defend itself.
The escalation in rhetoric comes as China sends more and more fighter jets to Taiwan’s air defense zone.and after making its biggest incursion of the year last month, while the United States has sent warships through Taiwan’s waters.
Are the United States and China moving towards a military conflict?
Calibrate the risks
One of the main fears is that a war could break out if China invades Taiwan. Beijing has said in the past that it could claim the island by force if necessary.
But most analysts say this is unlikely, for now.
There has been a debate about whether China has the military capability to succeed in an invasion, and Taiwan has greatly increased its air and sea defenses.
But many agree that Beijing recognizes that such a move would be too costly and disastrous, not just for China but for the world as well.
“There is a lot of rhetoric, but the Chinese must weigh the risks very carefully if they want to launch an invasion of Taiwan., especially so close to the Ukraine crisis. The Chinese economy is much more interconnected with the global economy than Russia’s,” says William Choong, a senior fellow at the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies.
China’s consistent position has been to seek “peaceful reunification” with Taiwan, something General Wei reiterated on Sunday, and that it would only act if confronted with provocation.
One trigger would be Taiwan formally declaring its independence. But this is something that its president, Tsai Ing-wen, has strenuously avoided, even as she insists that it is already a sovereign state.
Most Taiwanese support this position, which is known as “maintaining the status quo,” although a growing number say they want to move toward independence.
Similarly, the United States would be reluctant to become involved in a costly military conflict in Asia, and has repeatedly signaled that it does not want war.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who also attended the Shangri-La Dialogue, said in his speech that his country does not support Taiwan independence and does not want “a new Cold War.”
“Both sides are standing firm on Taiwan. They need to appear tough, they don’t want to appear to be backing down or stepping back,” said Collin Koh, a researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
“But at the same time, they’re worried about getting into outright conflict. They’re looking at each other’s rhetoric with eyes wide open, and both sides are trying to moderate the risk.”
The fact that both General Wei and Austin met on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue was a positive sign, as it meant that both sides wanted to show that they “are still willing to sit down and talk and come to a consensus, to be agree not to be,” Koh said.
This would likely lead to more operational discussions between the two militaries, which would reduce the possibility of miscalculations on the ground that could lead to conflict, and to an overall “strengthening of dialogue” that was lacking during the Donald Trump administration, it added.
War in the gray zone
Both China and the United States are expected to continue their rhetoric for the foreseeable future.
China may even escalate its “grey zone war” designed to exhaust Taiwan’s military forces and patience. That would mean sending in more fighter jets and running disinformation campaigns, said Ian Chong, a China expert at the National University of Singapore.
Taiwan has previously accused China of waging disinformation campaigns ahead of the island’s elections, and a major local election is due to take place later this year.
At least for the United States and China, “there is no political will to change their positions” for now, particularly with significant events on the horizon: the US midterm elections in November and the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China in the second half of the year in which President Xi Jinping is expected to consolidate power.
“The silver lining is that neither side is willing to escalate,” Chong said.
“But not escalating doesn’t mean we’ll get to a better position. So we’re all stuck in this position for a while.”
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BBC-NEWS-SRC: https://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias-internacional-61793318, IMPORTING DATE: 2022-06-16 05:00:08
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