Beyond the lights, the decorations and the Christmas carols, the true prelude to the festivities is, without a doubt, the Extraordinary Draw of the Christmas lottery. This December 22As every year, there will be a group of lucky people who will get a ‘pinch’ (some bigger, others smaller) of the prizes.
Without a doubt, the most desired is the Christmas Fatty or first prize, 400,000 euros per tenthalthough no one is disgusted by the second, with 125,000, or the third, with 50,000 for the tenth winner. With such succulent quantities, there are many who look forward to this special day. And that desire is not even taken away by mathematics, which reveals that the probabilities, despite the numbers, are not particularly high.
Year after year we delve into the search for mathematical answers, knowing that they will not be an encouragement, to find out if, by some chance, the percentages have changed in the last twelve months and luck may have a greater room for maneuver. Comparisons like “you are more likely to be hit by lightning than to be hit by the Fat Man” do not exactly encourage hope. Even so, year after year we see award-winning people, uncorking bottles on the street. Why not be us?
Number by number
Every year they come into play 100,000 numbers in the Christmas Lottery draw. The probability of all of them getting out of the Teatro Real hype is the same, although only around 15,304 will be awarded. That is to say, 15.3% of the participants will win a prize (including stones).
As explained by the Royal Spanish Mathematical Society, the probability that it will involve something more than the refund is slightly higher than 5%. Specifically, there will be 19 prizes, ranging from 400,000 euros per tenth of the Gordo to 960 per tenth of the approaches to third prize. The probability that you will touch any of these is 0.019%.
What is the probability that you will win a Christmas Lottery prize?
And what is the probability that you will win one of the big prizes? The probability of receiving the maximum Christmas Lottery prize when buying a tenth is 1 in 100,000, that is, a 0.001%. The figure is repeated for the second and third prize, since a single number will win 125,000 euros and another 50,000 euros (they are distributed by tenth, as in the case of Gordo.
And with the rest of the prizes? The odds of taking home the 20,000 euros per tenth of the fourth prize are 2 in 100,000, that is, 0.002%, and the odds of winning one of the eight fifths of 6,000 euros per tenth is 8 in 100,000 (0.008 %).
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